Meow

  熱帶低壓  
編號：94 S  

  基本資料   
　擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 19 日 06 時
　消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 20 日 20 時
　登陸地點　　：無
  討論帖圖片

94S.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-17.6S-124.0E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

補充展望報文以及現時雲圖
BoM看好發展

展望報文

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 5:20 pm WST on Saturday 17 January 2015
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 20 January 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A tropical low lies inland east of Argyle. This system is expected to move
westwards across the Kimberley over the weekend. The system should move off the
coast on Monday and there is a risk of development into a tropical cyclone.
Although the environment is only slightly favourable, there is a small window
for the system to develop during Monday and into Tuesday. If this does occur
the system should be small in size and also be short lived as the upper winds
quickly become unfavourable to support a tropical cyclone. Please refer to
Tropical Cyclone Advice [IDW24100] at www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

As the system moves across the Kimberley, areas of heavy rainfall are expected
and Flood Warnings have been issued for the north and west Kimberley. Refer to
www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings for more details.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Moderate   
Tuesday         Moderate   

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected
to develop over the next three days.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

IDW24100

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 9:01 pm WST on Saturday 17 January 2015
Headline:
Potential for a tropical cyclone to develop off the west Kimberley coast on Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Whim Creek.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 16.1 degrees South 129.0 degrees East, estimated to be 50 kilometres southeast of Kununurra.

Movement: west northwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low is expected to move generally westwards across the north Kimberley tonight and during Sunday. During Monday the low will move offshore from the west Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Cape Leveque and Wallal during Monday. If the system takes a more northerly track, gales may develop as far east as Kuri Bay during Monday. If the system tracks a little faster and to the southwest, gales may develop as far west as Whim Creek late on Monday.

Areas of heavy rain are expected over the north and west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details - http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:
DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Kuri Bay and Port Hedland should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Sunday 18 January.

對流發展相當旺盛

krichard2011

JTWC總算編號了
對流還算明顯且集中

t02436

中心出海 JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.3S 122.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF BROOME AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CIRCULATION CENTER, CURRENT OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT
DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

原本看好一出海即可命名的BoM
改調整為不再有進一步發展
並於09Z發出最後一次警告報

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14

Issued at 5:43 pm WST on Monday 19 January 2015

Headline:

Kimberley low unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. Warnings cancelled but the system will be closely monitored.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

None

Watch Zone

None

Cancelled Zone

From Cape Leveque to Mardie including Broome, Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South 121.9 degrees East, estimated to be 45 kilometres southwest of Broome and 420 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland.

Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.


The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:

Sustained gales are not expected in coastal communities but areas of heavy rain are likely over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details - http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:


ALL CLEAR: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Mardie are advised that damaging winds are no longer expected.

Next Advice:

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it reintensifies.