t02436

  熱帶低壓  
   編號  : 07 U ( 90 P )
   名稱  : 無

基本資料   
擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 06 日 01 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 14 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)   ： 30  kts  (  -  )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) ： 30  kts  (  TD  )
海平面最低氣壓      ：998 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
90P.INVEST.15kts.996mb.7.5S.153.7E

以上資料來自 :BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436

JTWC同樣評級Low

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1S 155.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW
GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE,
ALBEIT BROKEN, CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

BoM三天展望也是Low評

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:31 pm EST on Tuesday 6 January 2015
for the period until midnight EST Friday 9 January 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A developing monsoon trough currently lies over the far northern Coral Sea with
a weak low embedded in the trough in the Solomon Sea. The monsoon trough is
expected to develop further as it drifts south into the Coral Sea during the
week. There is no significant risk of tropical cyclone development in the short
term. The situation will be monitored carefully.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday       Very low   
Thursday        Very low   
Friday          Low        

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Meow

90P 和 91W 根本就連在一起的，不過越來越疏遠了。

t02436

BoM編號07U
首報暫時上望澳式C2

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1247 UTC 10/01/2015
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.6S
Longitude: 159.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [169 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: 2.5/2.5/D0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm [205 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  10/1800: 12.0S 159.6E:     030 [060]:  035  [065]:  996
+12:  11/0000: 12.7S 159.6E:     045 [080]:  040  [075]:  993
+18:  11/0600: 13.4S 159.6E:     055 [105]:  045  [085]:  991
+24:  11/1200: 14.2S 159.7E:     070 [130]:  050  [090]:  988
+36:  12/0000: 16.0S 160.5E:     090 [165]:  055  [100]:  985
+48:  12/1200: 17.8S 162.6E:     110 [200]:  055  [100]:  985
+60:  13/0000: 19.3S 165.9E:     130 [235]:  055  [100]:  984
+72:  13/1200: 20.7S 169.3E:     145 [270]:  055  [100]:  984
   
REMARKS:
During the afternoon period the deep convection was rather limited in extent,
but was nonetheless within about 20nm of the low level centre evident on the
visible imagery.  Held the T to 2.5 during the afternoon using the Dvorak 1995
discression for shear patterns based on limited convection strength and extent.
The latest image shows more substantial convection now near the probable centre,
in line with our overnight intensification forecast, however it's only the first
image, so we'll hold at 2.5 yet reiterate the policy is for possible TC genesis
within 6 hours.  Two channel outflow to NW and SE as the system lies flanked by
an upper trough to the south and monsoon return flow to the north.  Very high
SST [-30C].  Shear moderate and forecast to remain that way for 24-36 hours,
then increasing as the system perhaps gets more of a baroclinic structure.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.