t02436

  基本資料     
編號　　　　：90 W
擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 02 日 01 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 04 日 22 時

90W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.9N.113.6E

Meow

這個就是薔蜜的背風低壓，另一篇有提到了。

t02436

JTWC直接評級Medium

而薔蜜殘餘低壓則撤銷評級以及撤編

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
121.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 113.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. THIS AREA IS NOT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W, WHICH CLEARLY DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN
BORNEO, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012119Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO
THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
INDICATES A DISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST REVEAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS, PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST SURGE
EVENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

對流發展旺盛

JMA與JTWC定位仍相差3個經度

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 116E WEST 10 KT.

Meow

JTWC 發布 TCFA，應該很快就升格熱低了。



WTPN21 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 113.6E TO 4.7N 108.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 113.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N
113.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE WEST. A 020149Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS, ALONG WITH A 012344Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS
THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP
TIGHTER. A RECENT EDGE OF SWATH ASCAT PASS (020150Z) INDICATED A
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
WHICH IS BEING INDUCED BY THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030600Z.
//
NNNN

Meow

今年第一個熱帶低氣壓形成。:lol



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 112E WEST SLOWLY.

BlankCat

原本預測薔薇要跑馬來西亞的一段
可能要變成米克拉?

開梅

我也覺得有可能依然沿用薔蜜這個名字,因為氣象局的慣例向來如此,很少像南太平洋國家重新再給新名字,不然當年韋恩要改名了

Meow

評級直接降到 LOW。

WTPN21 PGTW 030530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551Z JAN 15//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 020600). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 113.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
4.2N 109.3E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
DISPLACED WESTWARD OF THE THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) APPROXIMATELY 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THE VWS TO ABATE
ALONG THE CYCLONES PROJECTED TRACK AND ARE NO LONGER INTENSIFYING
THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO A LOW.
//
NNNN