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02B.Phailin 深入內陸 喜馬拉雅山降''颱風雪''*

簽到天數: 1651 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2013-10-5 00:22 | 顯示全部樓層
  極強氣旋風暴   
  編號  : BOB 04 ( 02B )
  名稱  : 斐林 ( Phailin )


   基本資料   

  擾動編號日期 : 2013 10 05 00
  命名日期         :
2013 10 09 20
  消散日期         :
2013 1014 08
  登陸地點         :
印度奧里薩省

  巔峰時期資料  

 近中心最強風速

 印度氣象局 (IMD)   :  115   kts (  ESCS )
 美國海軍 (JTWC)   :   140  kts (  CAT 5 )                                                   

 最低氣壓 (RSMC)

 海平面最低氣壓 :   936  百帕


  過去路徑圖  
  討論帖圖片  
90W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-12.4N-100.5E



以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作




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是屬於南海的一部分,正確來說叫"暹羅灣"備註泰國古名叫做"暹羅"  發表於 2013-10-6 13:56
是屬於南海的一部分,正確來說叫"暹羅灣"備註泰國古名叫做"暹羅"  發表於 2013-10-6 13:55
已登陸並越過100E, fnmoc把90W放到印度洋的範圍了  發表於 2013-10-5 11:21
...
WUTIP不知道去多久了 這是另外的系統@@  發表於 2013-10-5 09:57
這位置應該不是南海吧  發表於 2013-10-5 06:31
這是蝴蝶殘留雲系復活嗎?不過那個海上空間狹窄,應該一出生就夭折了XD  發表於 2013-10-5 00:29

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參與人數 2水氣能量 +30 收起 理由
Herb + 15
king111807 + 15 贊一個!

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-10-5 00:29 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2013-10-5 00:31 編輯

晚兩分...殘念TAT
有圖了~~定位還沒看到

.





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[LV.6]常住居民II

Sammy|2013-10-5 11:49 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-10-5 21:48 | 顯示全部樓層
近岸爆發已評Low!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9N 102.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051119Z WINDSAT IMAGE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. SINCE THE LLCC APPEARS DISORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


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1999的05B疑似也是從那發展. 如果證實那暹羅灣也是能發展C5 . 而且擾動算南海@@~  發表於 2013-10-13 19:20
可能是1989Gay以來  發表於 2013-10-8 21:48
很少看到在泰國(暹羅)灣這裡發展的...  發表於 2013-10-5 21:58
...
可能不會再西太這邊有太大發展 但是進入印度洋的話@@有潛力  發表於 2013-10-5 21:54

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
阿隆 + 5

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[LV.6]常住居民II

SHYUDOL|2013-10-6 19:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 SHYUDOL 於 2013-10-6 19:53 編輯

(剛剛居然按錯帖...)
JMA認為他是一個熱帶低壓
另外整體雲系逐漸進入孟加拉灣
晚點看看定位會不會改過去
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 101E WEST 15 KT.

點評

EC認為他後期會發展成一個小型的強鋼砲颱風  發表於 2013-10-7 06:02

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +8 收起 理由
阿隆 + 8 贊一個!

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2013-10-8 17:46 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級MEDIUM囉

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 98.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 98.0E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS TRACKED OFF THE MALAY PENINSULA
AND OVER WATER IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 071439Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 071439Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
阿隆 + 5

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[LV.6]常住居民II

SHYUDOL|2013-10-8 18:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC也發布TCFA囉

另外IMD編號BOB 04 不過也很奇怪
八月中的時候IMD才編過一次BOB4 怎麼這次又是BOB4...

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST Dated: 08-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/01
Sub: Depression over north Andaman Sea.
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over north Andaman Sea and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 08thth October 2013 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 96.00E, about 350 km east-northeast of Port Blair, 1450 km east-southeast of Paradip, 1520 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow. It would move west-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast during next 72 hours.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over Andaman Islands during the same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail over Andaman Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Nicobar Islands during this period.
Fishermen of Andaman Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, 08thth October 2013.

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8月中那隻IMD認為是陸上形成的...但這Land 01之前為什麼會被叫做BOB 04就不知道了...IMD的報告根本不會寫編號...http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Preports2.htm  發表於 2013-10-8 23:36

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
阿隆 + 10 入秋後在這區域也正式進入風季.

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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2013-10-9 11:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-10-9 11:38 編輯

JTWC 升格02B 預測強度上看Cat.2

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