阿隆

  中度颱風  
   編號  : 1321 ( 20W )
   名稱  : 蝴蝶 ( ＷＵＴＩＰ )

  基本資料  
　擾動編號日期 : 2013 年   9 月 24 日 09 時
　命名日期         : 2013 年   9 月 27 日 14 時
　消散日期         : 2013 年 10 月 01 日 08時
　登陸地點         : 越南
   

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB) :   35   m/s (   12  級 )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA)  :   35  m/s (    70 kts )
　美國海軍 (JTWC)   :   90  kts  (   CAT 2  )
                                                
　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓 :   965  百帕
　七級風半徑       ：  150  公里
　十級風半徑       ：    50  公里

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
93W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-17.8N-116.4E


以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

williamtang

看來很難發展，極其量是低压區系統

t02436

已發LOW!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) AND DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. A 250146Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY DISORGANIZED AREA OF TROUGHING IN THE REGION WITH NO REAL DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY BROADLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

J18

日本將他升格為熱低!

millerkit31

香港天文台天氣圖亦已標示為低壓區了，雲圖所見，該低壓具明顯的旋轉，若及後對流持續及繼續旋轉的話，不排除能加強成熱低。然而，唉!中國內陸那令人討厭的涼性高壓開始活躍，華南更即將迎接入秋以來第一道冷鋒，在天氣形態轉為秋天格局的情況下，本人對及後進南海或於南海生成的熱帶氣旋，能到達華南沿岸，抱不樂觀態度，因高壓常把台風壓在低緯位置。

t02436

Gale Warning!

martin191919

JTWC: MEDIUM
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N
116.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDS OF BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT
251347Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC WAS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED IN THE
EAST-WEST AXIS WITH CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY
BROADLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE LLCC ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

millerkit31

雲圖中看到位於15N,118E明顯有雲在轉動，香港天文台亦云該低壓有可能於未來一兩天發展成熱帶氣旋！預計該低壓發展後大致向西北西移動，移近海南附近海域。