1308 西馬隆靠近汕頭海警解除

唯爱叶子 · 2013-7-13 19:33

我期待着93W能成为新强台

SakuraSayuri · 2013-7-14 02:31

本帖最後由 SakuraSayuri 於 2013-7-14 02:33 編輯

C:\Users\user\Pictures\T.C\d 2.odg

93W 目前處於副高南緣, 將受偏東風影響, 先向西北偏西, 然後西北移動, 趨向呂宋一帶。
之後的路徑就要看副高的西伸程度, 我推斷若副高持續強勢的話, 93W會先登陸呂宋, 後登陸珠三角至海南一帶。但若副高不能重新西伸, 93W就會北上到廣西至台灣一帶。
關於強度方面, 因93W處於低風切的高海溫外洋環境中, 再加上西南水氣的支援, 強度將會頗可觀。
C:\Users\user\Pictures\T.C\w.c..GIF

ben811018 · 2013-7-14 03:35

底層環流中心狹長～而且沒什麼組織～還要繼續整合

９３北面有冷低通過，帶來良好的高層幅散通道，會不會讓系統快速發展可以稍加注意

另外，西南季風逐漸進入南海～預料南海會有季風低壓建立

如果９３能夠順利發展起來～那麼情況又不太一樣

蘇力掰了～接下來還是很熱鬧

jwpk9899 · 2013-7-14 09:41

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 134.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
131449Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTS THIS TROUGHING, WITH THE MAXIMUM TURNING
LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF PALAU. WINDS WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS, HOWEVER ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH LIGHT (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
TO THE NORTH. A TIME SERIES OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

阿隆 · 2013-7-14 09:49

蘇力僅管登陸消散中但因北上所引入~原本不怎明顯西南氣流開始轉威了!(今早起對流移入西南部正降大雨中)
另樓上總監已有提及南海季風槽,目前看來不但已重新建立,目前見於南海南部蘊釀有擾動開始蠢動機率不低喔!
93W過去幾小時中心重調整(7.5N-133.8E)後開始有機會旋起,不過底層尚處破碎所以LOW評沒錯!(若南海南部在未來1~2天會有擾動發展,那麼93W所原預測可能路徑或許需重新思考)