97W 中心轉裸將併入冷低?

krichard2011 · 2013-6-25 16:33

97W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.7N.157.7E

簡直就是個小不點 = =

jwpk9899 · 2013-6-25 16:53

好吧看可見光...勉強看到有LLCC 不過也太小陀了吧

麻友飯 · 2013-6-25 21:09

本帖最後由麻友飯於 2013-6-25 21:12 編輯

?
晴空萬里耶下午的那坨僅存的小旋渦快熬不住了
低幅散 0幅合
快撤編了應該
:

krichard2011 · 2013-6-26 08:29

雖然中心爆出一些對流出來
不過不久好像又開始被切走了
南側偏乾+中等風切
目前尚不太適合發展
就看北方的冷心低壓是否能加強北側流出
助它一臂之力啦...

马鞍二世 · 2013-6-26 11:04

真不知道JTWC，95那么好，还扯了，那岂不得97，98扯了100次，开始爆发，涡度加深，泛橙，浑圆

SHYUDOL · 2013-6-26 17:34

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2013-6-26 19:27 編輯

來補上早上的評LOW的時候的報文及圖片PS:圖片依然轉至台風論壇
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 153.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A
DEFINED BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED, DISSIPATING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, MSI SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL
BUT HAS THUS FAR RETAINED AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC. A 260348Z AMSU
IMAGE INDICATES NO SUBSTANTIVE EVIDENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. THE 26/00Z CHUUK SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ABOVE 900 MB WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW (SFC TO 350 MB) OVERLAYED WITH
WESTERLY FLOW (350 TO 100 MB), CLEARLY INDICATIVE OF A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT AND VERIFYING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) NEAR 35 KNOTS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK INDICATE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (05-10
KNOTS) WITH SLP NEAR 1008 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.2 MB. A
252349Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION, AND WEAKER 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS AND POOR
DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

krichard2011 · 2013-6-26 19:16

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-6-26 19:25 編輯

JTWC 目前看衰......
目前97W處在一個非常不立的環境
除了垂直風切強勁之外還飽受乾空氣的摧殘
JTWC的問字報告中提到LLCC一度有消散的趨勢
不過之後還是留下了一個弱且瘦長的LLCC
切風切強不利生存...
不知道它能不能撐得下去 = =

題外話:
其實仔細看一下JTWC的報文
他寫得還滿詳細的....

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 153.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A DEFINED BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, DISSIPATING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, MSI SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL BUT HAS THUS FAR RETAINED AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC. A 260348Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES NO SUBSTANTIVE EVIDENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE 26/00Z CHUUK SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 900 MB WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW (SFC TO 350 MB) OVERLAYED WITH WESTERLY FLOW (350 TO 100 MB), CLEARLY INDICATIVE OF A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND VERIFYING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) NEAR 35 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK INDICATE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (05-10 KNOTS) WITH SLP NEAR 1008 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.2 MB. A 252349Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, AND WEAKER 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS AND POOR DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
原本爆出的對流被風切扒掉了
目前裸奔中...