18S 對流消長不定發展待觀察

jwpk9899 · 2013-2-20 17:29

EC報出連續好幾報澳洲西北邊雙颶風
其中一個應該就是現在的96S了
另一個應該是現位於澳洲西北邊海域的那坨雲
並預測會在短期內爆發增強近中心的風力甚至破表(難道會出現FMS和JTWC都Cat5??

阿隆 · 2013-2-21 16:45

阿隆 · 2013-2-22 04:10

凌晨中心附近對流突現爆發,現勢力與右側98S大致相當!

JTWC即刻評價LOW,南印的2擾相互較競接續精彩可期!

阿隆 · 2013-2-23 04:10

看來應是併入98S大部能量,強度一下就衝上30kts~研判最快今天就應會發出TCFA了!

JTWC再升評價至MEDIUM,目前所處位置約與前一Cat2氣旋Gino相當~頗令人看好後勢!

SHYUDOL · 2013-2-24 11:45

TCFA囉到是過去怎麼往北跑了... 要逃17S往北跑應該沒用吧

WTXS22 PGTW 240200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230251Z FEB 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 11.2S 98.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 240130Z
INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 98.3E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 117.9E
//
NNNN