簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2013-2-17 14:52
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回帖獎勵 +10 mm水氣能量
本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2013-2-17 14:52 編輯
JTWC : LOW
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N 137.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION. A RECENT 170013Z ASCAT PASS
MISSED THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LLCC, BUT DOES INDICATE THE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ARE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, IT INDICATES STRONGER GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ARE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC AND ARE HELPING TO FUEL RECENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, IN ADDITION TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE BETWEEN 28 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OBSERVATIONS AT KOROR, PALAU SHOW A ONE MILLIBAR PRESSURE FALL OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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