15E.Olivia 減弱消散中~

阿隆 · 2012-10-6 06:16

  熱帶風暴
  編號  : 15 E
  名稱  : Olivia
基本資料
  擾動編號日期 : 2012 年 10 月 06 日 06 時
  命名日期       : 2012 年 10 月 07 日 02 時
  消散日期       : 2012 年 10 月 09 日 08 時
  登陸地點       : 無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
   美國國家颶風中心 (NHC) ： 50 kts  ( TS )
   海平面最低氣壓　　　　  ：997 百帕
  過去路徑圖

10/7(日)凌晨升格為TS(螺旋性良好),中心位置14.N-120.5W向西移動,JTWC預估強度僅是TS。

擾動中心位置13.5N-115.3W/25kts
初期結構尚可惟週遭環境場偏乾發展待觀察。

桑達 · 2012-10-6 07:15

評價為30%Medium 昨天一度降為0%low 可能是今天又爆發出對流才會升為medium 不過只是猜測〜幅合輻散都不錯，渦度泛紅

阿隆 · 2012-10-6 08:08

桑達 · 2012-10-6 15:54

雖然前面一大片旱區但是評價持續上升現在60% 在10%就TCFA

阿隆 · 2012-10-6 18:27

地面風場分析:較強對流開始旋入中心,凌晨成擾動至今不到一天整合速度驚人,相較99W高低層仍嚴重分離,再過一天後很有機會成為TS(當增強後就足以開始改變四週部份較不利的環境場)。

jwpk9899 · 2012-10-6 19:36

哦~TCFA囉

WTPN21 PHNC 061200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 117.3W TO 15.6N 122.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 117.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N 117.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND, MEXICO.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD AROUND IT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA HAS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
JUST TO EAST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GIVING THE AREA GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071200Z.//
NNNN

阿隆 · 2012-10-6 23:04

從擾動編號到成TD不到一天就達陣(但顯然受乾區所阻目前預測最強僅達TS),不過預測路徑是往海上,目前看來是個無害"生於海逝於海"的熱帶風暴!

jwpk9899 · 2012-10-7 00:58

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2012-10-7 00:59 編輯

這預測強度...不只是在TS而已還是在TS的下限呢

INIT  06/1500Z 14.0N 118.7W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W 30 KT  35 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W 35 KT  40 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 35 KT  40 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W 35 KT  40 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W 30 KT  35 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 16.5N 123.5W 25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z 16.5N 124.5W 25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW