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MEDIUM 報文
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING AND
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, APPROXIMATELY SIX DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, AND THREE DEGREES SOUTH OF A COL THAT LIES
BETWEEN TWO TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELLS. THIS CURRENT
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, PAST 24 HOUR WIND SHEAR
TENDENCY SHOWS A DECREASE OF 10 KNOTS AND INDICATES AN IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. A 011104Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
BROAD CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE LLCC. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN
END OF AN EXTREMELY TIGHT MONSOON TROUGH, WITH AN ELONGATED LLCC. A
010222Z OCEANSAT PASS CONFIRMS THE AREA OF TIGHT TROUGHING, WITH 30
KNOT WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FAVORABLE 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SSTS
AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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