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frintezza|2012-7-17 22:42
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JTWC剛剛評為LOW了
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 555 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171111Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATE A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION; HOWEVER, A 170312Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD, DEFINED CIRCULATION AND RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AS TS 08W TRACKS RAPIDLY POLEWARD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AROUND 72 TO 96 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
風切較高, 發展需時
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