簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-6-17 08:26
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3N
111.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 161635Z OSCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHARP TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS. PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA CONFIRM AN ESPECIALLY DEEP MONSOON
TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO FEATURES AFFECTING THE
AREA; THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YELLOW SEA TO TAIWAN, WHICH
IS PRODUCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OVER THE LLCC IS LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IT INCREASES
SHARPLY AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION, LEAVING ONLY A SMALL SWATH OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM THE
REGION INDICATE THAT THE LLCC IS WELL-DEFINED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
JTWC將92W的評級升到MEDIUM |
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