alu

基本資料  
編號　　　　：94 E
擾動編號日期：2024 年 09 月 22 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2024 年 09 月 00 日 00 時
EP, 94, 2024092200,   , BEST,   0, 127N,  990W,  25, 1008, DB,  34, NEQ






Tropical Weather Outlook Text        EspañolTropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure is producing an area of showers and
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly
eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

krichard2011

NHC命名John
底層掃描眼牆明顯

1. 000
   
2. WTPZ45 KNHC 230853
   
3. TCDEP5
   
4. 
   
5. Tropical Storm John Discussion Number   3
   
6. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
   
7. 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024
   
8. 
   
9. Satellite images indicate that John continues to become better
   
10. organized, with very deep convection near the center and some tight
    
11. curved band features.  Earlier microwave imagery also showed some
    
12. inner core development, with perhaps a partial eyewall trying to
    
13. form.  Subjective Dvorak estimates at 06z were 35 kt from both
    
14. TAFB/SAB, though the objective values were between 40-50 kt.  The
    
15. intensity is set to 40 kt as a blend of these data.
    
16. 
    
17. The storm is moving slowly to the north-northeast, caught in the
    
18. large-scale southwesterly flow associated with the monsoon trough
    
19. near Central America.  There has been a big change in most of the
    
20. track guidance since yesterday, with a fair number of the models
    
21. now showing a steadier northeastward motion with less eastward
    
22. steering from the incipient tropical cyclone in the northwestern
    
23. Caribbean Sea.  Consequently, the models have shifted leftward and
    
24. faster.  The official forecast is also trended in that direction,
    
25. but could still be too far to the east.  
    
26. 
    
27. John is forecast to be over very warm waters with light shear while
    
28. it approaches the coast of Mexico over the next day or so.  While
    
29. none of the regional hurricane models make John a hurricane before
    
30. landfall, the rapid intensification indices are indicating at least
    
31. a 50 percent chance that this system strengthens 30 kt in the next
    
32. 24 hours, which would indicate hurricane-strength.  Given the
    
33. uncertainties involved, a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm
    
34. Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of
    
35. the coast of southern Mexico on this advisory, and interests there
    
36. should closely monitor for future forecast updates.
    
37. 
    
38. 
    
39. KEY MESSAGES:
    
40. 
    
41. 1. Slow-moving Tropical Storm John will bring very heavy
    
42. rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the
    
43. upcoming week.  This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant
    
44. and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and
    
45. mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast
    
46. Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.
    
47. 
    
48. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane
    
49. Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion
    
50. of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm
    
51. conditions could begin late today.
    
52. 
    
53. 3. John could strengthen more than forecast depending on how
    
54. long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern
    
55. Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as Hurricane
    
56. Warnings could be required for a portion of the coastline later
    
57. today.
    
58. 
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
61. 
    
62. INIT  23/0900Z 14.4N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
    
63. 12H  23/1800Z 14.8N  98.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
    
64. 24H  24/0600Z 15.4N  97.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
    
65. 36H  24/1800Z 15.8N  97.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
    
66. 48H  25/0600Z 16.0N  97.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
    
67. 60H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
68. 
    
69. $$
    
70. Forecaster Blake

複製代碼

krichard2011

近岸增強底層扎實
高層風眼若隱若現 即將登陸
目前近中心最大風速 85KT 973hPa
登陸前仍上看 105KT Major Hurricane




18Z

1. ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
   
2. TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
   
3. 
   
4. Hurricane John Special Discussion Number   5
   
5. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
   
6. 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024
   
7. 
   
8. John has continued to rapidly intensify and the latest images
   
9. suggest an eye may be forming on visible and infrared imagery.
   
10. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from
    
11. 65 to 85 kt.  The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt.
    
12. The new NHC intensity forecast shows John strengthening to a major
    
13. hurricane prior to reaching the coast of Mexico.  It is possible
    
14. that the hurricane could strengthen more than forecast.
    
15. 
    
16. Only a minor tweak was made to the previous NHC track forecast to
    
17. show landfall occurring a bit sooner.  Residents of Mexico in the
    
18. hurricane warning area should rush preparations to completion this
    
19. afternoon.
    
20. 
    
21. 
    
22. KEY MESSAGES:
    
23. 
    
24. 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is
    
25. forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the
    
26. coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on
    
27. Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge
    
28. are expected within portions of the warning area.
    
29. 
    
30. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of
    
31. southern Mexico through this week.  This heavy rainfall will likely
    
32. cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash
    
33. flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and
    
34. southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.
    
35. 
    
36. 
    
37. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
38. 
    
39. INIT  23/1800Z 15.1N  98.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
    
40. 12H  24/0000Z 15.3N  98.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
    
41. 24H  24/1200Z 15.8N  97.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
    
42. 36H  25/0000Z 16.1N  97.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
    
43. 48H  25/1200Z 16.3N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
    
44. 60H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
45. 
    
46. $$
    
47. Forecaster Hagen
    
48. 
    
49. NNNN

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21Z

1. ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
   
2. TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
   
3. 
   
4. Hurricane John Discussion Number   6
   
5. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
   
6. 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024
   
7. 
   
8. John continues to rapidly strengthen.  The latest subjective Dvorak
   
9. intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, while the latest
   
10. objective intensity estimates are a little higher, in the 79 to 90
    
11. kt range.  On infrared satellite imagery, the area of cold cloud
    
12. tops continues to grow, and the inner core is becoming more
    
13. symmetric.  The latest visible images have shown hints of a small
    
14. eye, that has become a little more apparent in the last few hours.  
    
15. Based on the above data and recent satellite trends, the initial
    
16. intensity is increased to 85 kt, making John a category 2 hurricane.
    
17. 
    
18. Environmental parameters continue to be ripe for additional rapid
    
19. intensification, with very warm ocean temperatures, weak vertical
    
20. wind shear and a moist atmosphere.  The only potential limiting
    
21. factor could be how John might interact with the mountainous
    
22. topography of Mexico as the hurricane approaches the coastline.  The
    
23. DSHIPS and LGEM statistical intensity models remain at the higher
    
24. end of the guidance envelope and show John becoming a major
    
25. hurricane as it approaches the coast.  The EC SHIPS Rapid Intensity
    
26. Index is depicting a high likelihood of continued rapid
    
27. intensification over next 12 hours.  The latest NHC forecast is near
    
28. the high end of the intensity guidance and continues to show John
    
29. strengthening to a 105-kt hurricane.  It is possible that John could
    
30. peak even higher than shown below between the 12 h forecast point
    
31. and when it reaches the coast.
    
32. 
    
33. John continues to move due northward, now at 5 kt.  The current
    
34. motion and the latest model guidance has again necessitated a
    
35. westward track shift to the NHC forecast. Given the updated track
    
36. forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane
    
37. warning westward.
    
38. 
    
39. 
    
40. KEY MESSAGES:
    
41. 
    
42. 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is
    
43. forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the
    
44. coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area tonight
    
45. or early Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a
    
46. life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the
    
47. hurricane warning area.
    
48. 
    
49. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of
    
50. southern Mexico through this week.  This heavy rainfall will likely
    
51. cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash
    
52. flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and
    
53. southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.
    
54. 
    
55. 
    
56. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
57. 
    
58. INIT  23/2100Z 15.5N  98.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
    
59. 12H  24/0600Z 16.0N  98.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
    
60. 24H  24/1800Z 16.5N  98.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
    
61. 36H  25/0600Z 16.7N  98.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    
62. 48H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
63. 
    
64. $$
    
65. Forecaster Hagen
    
66. 
    
67. NNNN

複製代碼

krichard2011

NHC升格 C3 105KT
中心氣壓 959 hPa

1. ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
   
2. TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
   
3. 
   
4. Hurricane John Discussion Number   7
   
5. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
   
6. 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024
   
7. 
   
8. John has continued to strengthen this evening with a small tight
   
9. inner core, which was well depicted in SSMIS microwave images around
   
10. 00z. Infrared imagery depicts an eye with cold cloud tops near -80 C
    
11. wrapping around the core. Subjective intensity estimates have
    
12. continued to increase this evening with data-T values of T5.5 from
    
13. both SAB and TAFB, with final-T values constrained due to the rapid
    
14. intensification. Given the most recent satellite depiction and using
    
15. the data-T values, the intensity for this advisory is increased to
    
16. 105 kt. John is now a major category 3 hurricane.
    
17. 
    
18. The hurricane could still strengthen some more over the next couple
    
19. of hours before it makes landfall along the coast of southern
    
20. Mexico. After John moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast over
    
21. the higher terrain with the small inner core quickly deteriorating.
    
22. The rate of weakening could occur faster than what is currently
    
23. forecast and the 24 h forecast point is held for continuity inland
    
24. as it is possible the system could dissipate sooner.
    
25. 
    
26. John continues to move northward around 7 kt.  This current motion
    
27. should continue as John nears the coast, making landfall in the next
    
28. couple of hours and will continue to move inland on Tuesday. The
    
29. cyclone is forecast to slow its forward motion as it moves inland
    
30. and dissipates.
    
31. 
    
32. 
    
33. KEY MESSAGES:
    
34. 
    
35. 1. John is expected to be a major hurricane as it reaches the coast
    
36. of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area in the next
    
37. couple of hours. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a
    
38. life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the
    
39. hurricane warning area.
    
40. 
    
41. 2. Slow-moving Hurricane John will bring very heavy rainfall to
    
42. coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This
    
43. heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly
    
44. catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the
    
45. Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
    
46. particularly in areas near the coast.
    
47. 
    
48. 
    
49. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
50. 
    
51. INIT  24/0300Z 16.3N  98.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
    
52. 12H  24/1200Z 17.0N  98.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
    
53. 24H  25/0000Z 17.5N  99.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    
54. 36H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
    
55. 
    
56. $$
    
57. Forecaster Kelly
    
58. 
    
59. NNNN
    

複製代碼

krichard2011

原95E升格TS 名字保沿用 John
約翰再度復活~

1. 000
   
2. WTPZ45 KNHC 251456
   
3. TCDEP5
   
4. 
   
5. Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  11
   
6. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
   
7. 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024
   
8. 
   
9. John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico.  The
   
10. CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity,
    
11. likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have
    
12. merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough.  
    
13. Convection has gradually become better organized based on
    
14. geostationary infrared and visibly imagery.  An AMSR2 microwave pass
    
15. at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a
    
16. well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has
    
17. given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this
    
18. advisory.
    
19. 
    
20. The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen
    
21. in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water.  
    
22. Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining
    
23. weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea
    
24. surface temperatures.  Statistical guidance even suggests there is
    
25. an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification.  
    
26. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak
    
27. intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and
    
28. at the top of the guidance envelope.  However, there is a chance
    
29. John may become a hurricane prior to landfall.
    
30. 
    
31. The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with
    
32. an estimate motion of 80/2 kt.  Models indicate that John will
    
33. gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly
    
34. towards the coast on Thursday.  Regional and global models vary the
    
35. timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models
    
36. showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF
    
37. lingering offshore until Friday.  The official track forecast calls
    
38. for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on
    
39. Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this
    
40. timing.  A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been
    
41. issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of
    
42. southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future
    
43. forecasts for updates.
    
44. 
    
45. KEY MESSAGES:
    
46. 
    
47. 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
    
48. coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday.  The additional
    
49. rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
    
50. heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days.   This heavy rainfall
    
51. will likely cause significant and  catastrophic, life-threatening
    
52. flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,  
    
53. Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca.
    
54. 
    
55. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane
    
56. Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of
    
57. the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical
    
58. storm conditions could begin later today.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
61. 
    
62. INIT  25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
    
63. 12H  26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
    
64. 24H  26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
    
65. 36H  27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
    
66. 48H  27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
    
67. 60H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
68. 
    
69. $$
    
70. Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

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