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05S.Belal 上看ITC 路徑趨向留尼旺

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alu

簽到天數: 3866 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老
2024-1-11 16:17 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶氣旋  
編號：02-20232024 ( 05 S )
名稱：Belal

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期　　：2024 年 01 月 11 日 14 時
ＪＴＷＣ升格日期：2024 年 01 月 12 日 20 時
命名日期　　　　：2024 年 01 月 13 日 08 時
撤編日期　　　　：2024 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：85 kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓：975 百帕

  基本資料
編號　　　　：97S
擾動編號日期：2024 年 01 月 11 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2024 年 01 月 00 日 00 時
IO, 97, 2024010118,   , BEST,   0,  70N,  652E,  20, 1008, DB

20240111.0730.himawari-9.ir.97S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.11.9S.61E.060pc.jpg
以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15

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krichard2011

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I
krichard2011|2024-1-14 00:49 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 已於 2024/01/13 00Z UTC
升格命名 Belal
預測將以強烈熱帶氣旋等級
對留尼旺造成威脅

trajectoire.png
補上升格後RSMC報文

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 130033
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20232024
  5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 56.0 E
  8. (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 45
  17. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0
  18. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  19. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/01/13 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  24. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110
  25. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
  26. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0
  27. 24H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  28. 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 150
  29. 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 110
  30. 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
  31. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
  32. 36H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  33. 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 195
  34. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 140
  35. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
  36. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
  37. 48H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  38. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 175
  39. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
  40. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
  41. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  42. 60H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  43. 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 185
  44. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 130
  45. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
  46. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
  47. 72H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  48. 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 185
  49. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 130
  50. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
  51. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
  52. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  53. 96H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  54. 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 205
  55. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 140
  56. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
  57. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  58. 120H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  59. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 315 NW: 215
  60. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 150
  61. 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70
  62. 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
  63. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  64. T=CI=2.5+
複製代碼

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 130713
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20232024
  5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 55.0 E
  8. (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 100
  17. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
  18. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  19. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 110
  25. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 85
  26. 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  27. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0
  28. 24H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
  29. CYCLONE
  30. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 185
  31. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 130
  32. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
  33. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
  34. 36H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  35. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185
  36. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
  37. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
  38. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45
  39. 48H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  40. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185
  41. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
  42. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
  43. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  44. 60H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  45. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 230 NW: 195
  46. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130
  47. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
  48. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
  49. 72H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  50. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 195
  51. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 130
  52. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
  53. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
  54. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  55. 96H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  56. 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 230
  57. 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 155
  58. 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
  59. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  60. 120H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  61. 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 240
  62. 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 165
  63. 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
  64. 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
  65. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  66. T=CI=3.5
複製代碼

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 131240
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20232024
  5. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 54.0 E
  8. (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/12 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
  17. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
  18. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
  19. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 155
  25. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100
  26. 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  27. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30
  28. 24H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
  29. CYCLONE
  30. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 195
  31. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 130
  32. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
  33. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45
  34. 36H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
  35. CYCLONE
  36. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 205
  37. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
  38. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
  39. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  40. 48H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  41. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 185
  42. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 120
  43. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
  44. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
  45. 60H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  46. 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 175
  47. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 110
  48. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
  49. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
  50. 72H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  51. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 220
  52. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 150
  53. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
  54. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
  55. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  56. 96H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  57. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 240
  58. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 155
  59. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
  60. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
  61. 120H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  62. 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 205
  63. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
  64. 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
  65. 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
  66. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  67. FT=CI=4.0
複製代碼
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krichard2011

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I
krichard2011|2024-1-14 23:29 | 顯示全部樓層
從最近的底層掃描觀察到
附近風切不算強 但對流呈現不對稱
從微波來看 似乎是有吸入部分乾空氣的情形
導致底層暫時無法鞏固
202401141330.jpg
20240114.121200.SH052024.ssmis.F18.color89.85kts.81p0.1p0.jpg
anigif.gif

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 141243
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20232024
  5. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 1200 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 53.6 E
  8. (NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 250
  17. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 205
  18. 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
  19. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 215
  25. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120
  26. 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
  27. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
  28. 24H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
  29. CYCLONE
  30. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 205
  31. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
  32. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
  33. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  34. 36H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  35. 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 205
  36. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
  37. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
  38. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  39. 48H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  40. 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 195
  41. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
  42. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
  43. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  44. 60H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  45. 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 215
  46. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120
  47. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
  48. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  49. 72H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  50. 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 205
  51. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
  52. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
  53. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  54. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  55. 96H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  56. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 195
  57. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
  58. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
  59. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
  60. 120H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  61. 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185
  62. 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
  63. 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
  64. 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40
  65. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  66. FT=CI=4.5-
複製代碼


補之前報文
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 131905
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20232024
  5. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 1800 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 53.8 E
  8. (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
  17. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
  18. 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
  19. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 185
  25. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 120
  26. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
  27. 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45
  28. 24H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
  29. CYCLONE
  30. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 195
  31. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
  32. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
  33. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  34. 36H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
  35. CYCLONE
  36. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 195
  37. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 140
  38. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
  39. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  40. 48H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  41. 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 195
  42. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140
  43. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
  44. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  45. 60H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  46. 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 240
  47. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 155
  48. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
  49. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  50. 72H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  51. 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 250
  52. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 165
  53. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
  54. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
  55. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  56. 96H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  57. 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 220
  58. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
  59. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
  60. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
  61. 120H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  62. 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 185
  63. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
  64. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
  65. 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
  66. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  67. FT=CI=4.0+
複製代碼


  1. WTIO30 FMEE 140054
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20232024
  5. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 0000 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 53.5 E
  8. (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
  17. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
  18. 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
  19. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 205
  25. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 120
  26. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
  27. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  28. 24H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  29. 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 215
  30. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
  31. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
  32. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
  33. 36H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  34. 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 215
  35. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130
  36. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
  37. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35
  38. 48H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  39. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 230
  40. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 150
  41. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
  42. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  43. 60H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  44. 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 230
  45. 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 140
  46. 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
  47. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
  48. 72H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  49. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 220
  50. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 130
  51. 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
  52. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
  53. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  54. 96H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  55. 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 230
  56. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
  57. 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
  58. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
  59. 120H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  60. 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 230
  61. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 140
  62. 48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
  63. 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
  64. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  65. FT=CI=4.5-
複製代碼


  1. WTIO30 FMEE 140655
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20232024
  5. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 53.5 E
  8. (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
  17. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
  18. 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
  19. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 195
  25. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
  26. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
  27. 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
  28. 24H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  29. 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 205
  30. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
  31. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
  32. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
  33. 36H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  34. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 205
  35. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
  36. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
  37. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
  38. 48H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  39. 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 215
  40. 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
  41. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
  42. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
  43. 60H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  44. 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 220
  45. 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140
  46. 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
  47. 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
  48. 72H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  49. 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 220
  50. 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
  51. 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
  52. 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
  53. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  54. 96H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  55. 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 230
  56. 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 155
  57. 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
  58. 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
  59. 120H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  60. 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 250
  61. 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 165
  62. 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 100 NW: 80
  63. 64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
  64. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  65. FT=CI=4.5
複製代碼

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