(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2N
128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 431 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB OKINAWA, JAPAN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220912Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE SUSPECTED LLCC. ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91W
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY
LACKLUSTER POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE STRUGGLING TO BECOME A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2N 128.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH STRONG MID-
LEVEL TURNING. A 221727Z ATMS 88.2GHZ PASS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A WEAK
CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT
AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STEADY NORTHWARD
TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.0N 126.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 442 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 222146Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STEADY
NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
TPPN11 PGTW 230026
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (E OF LUZON)
B. 23/0000Z
C. 18.67N
D. 126.32E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1952Z 18.75N 126.23E SSMS
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