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c789654|2011-9-19 06:21
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WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 26.3N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 130.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.1N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 27.8N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.9N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 38.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 48.3N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 130.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. AN 181703Z 36 GHZ AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED LOW
LEVEL CONVECTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY
WRAPPING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE AMSRE PASS AND IR IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 55 KNOT PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WHICH IS LIMITING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 18W IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
ALLOW TS 18W TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. TS 18W SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MAKING LANDFALL
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY IN
TRANSLATION SPEEDS. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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