周子堯@FB

  基本資料  
編號               ：94 L
擾動編號日期 ：2023 年 07 月 11 日 20 時
撤編日期        ：2023 年 07 月 00 日 00 時
AL, 94, 2023071112,   , BEST,   0, 365N,  554W,  25, 1014, DB



NHC:30%

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a few hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical
depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the system moves
generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward
bringing the system over cooler waters, likely limiting additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

周子堯@FB

NHC評級升至Medium 短期內成旋機率仍不高

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located more than 800 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily to the east and southeast of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for this system
to become a subtropical depression or storm during the next couple
of days while it meanders over the central Atlantic. By the weekend,
the low should turn northward bringing the system over cooler
waters, potentially limiting additional development. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts, issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

周子堯@FB

JTWC稍早發布TCFA，NHC及亦提升至High-70%，或將成旋

WTNT21 KNGU 132100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31.9N 46.4W TO 33.7N 46.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 131800Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 47.15W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF
LOW  PRESSURE LOCATED WELL EAST OF BERMUDA OVER THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS BUT
DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 142100Z.//

099
ABNT20 KNHC 132316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of
the Azores has become more organized today, with increased
thunderstorm activity near a better-defined low-level center, along
with gale-force winds.  Although the environment is only marginally
conducive, this system will likely become a subtropical storm during
the next day or so as it meanders over the central Atlantic. By the
weekend, the low should turn northward, bringing the system over
cooler waters and potentially limiting further development.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts, issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

t02436

繞了一圈，二次巔峰達C1