(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N
146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 468 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 170721Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF AN ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA REVEALS A WEAK LLC WITH SOME 25KT WINDS, ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES, TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SST, OFFSET BY
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, BUT DISAGREE ON INTENSITY, WITH GFS AND
NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 149.2E TO 7.7N 148.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N 149.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.2N 147.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, USA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 182327Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES GRADUALLY WRAPPING INTO A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (30-31C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH WHERE THE PRIMARY LLCC WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE LLCC IS ESTABLISHED, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY SUBSEQUENT WARNING AND
ASSOCIATED TRACK FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON THE LOCATION OF
THE LLCC ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPN22 PGTW 190200Z).
熱帯低気圧 a
2023年05月19日22時30分発表
19日21時の実況
種別 熱帯低気圧
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯6度00分 (6.0度)
東経149度00分 (149.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速 23 m/s (45 kt)
20日21時の予報
種別 台風
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯6度35分 (6.6度)
東経148度50分 (148.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径 150 km (80 NM)
21日21時の予報
種別 台風
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯8度25分 (8.4度)
東経147度30分 (147.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 10 km/h (6 kt)
中心気圧 994 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速 35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径 240 km (130 NM)
22日21時の予報
種別 台風
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯10度55分 (10.9度)
東経146度20分 (146.3度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧 990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30 m/s (55 kt)
最大瞬間風速 40 m/s (80 kt)
予報円の半径 370 km (200 NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 410 km (220 NM)
23日21時の予報
種別 台風
強さ 強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯13度55分 (13.9度)
東経145度10分 (145.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧 975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35 m/s (65 kt)
最大瞬間風速 50 m/s (95 kt)
予報円の半径 520 km (280 NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 600 km (325 NM)
24日21時の予報
種別 台風
強さ 強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯16度30分 (16.5度)
東経144度10分 (144.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧 965 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40 m/s (75 kt)
最大瞬間風速 55 m/s (105 kt)
予報円の半径 700 km (390 NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 850 km (450 NM)
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