alu

  五級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：23U ( 18 S )
名稱：Ilsa

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期　：2023 年 04 月 06 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期： 2023 年 04 月 08 日 08 時
命名日期　　　：2023 年 04 月 11 日 14 時
撤編日期　　　：2023 年 04 月 16 日 02 時
登陸地點　　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：117 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：140 kt (  Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓：928 百帕

  擾動/基本資料    
98S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7.0S.134.9E

krichard2011

JTWC 發布TCFA

數值模式看好發展~

krichard2011

JTWC 對這個系統的前景非常看好
第一報直接上看 C5 140KT

1. WTXS31 PGTW 082100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
   
4. REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071952ZAPR2023//
   
5. AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
   
6. RMKS/
   
7. 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   
8.    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   
9.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   
10.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
11.     ---
    
12.    WARNING POSITION:
    
13.    081800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 128.2E
    
14.      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
    
15.      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    
16.      POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
    
17.      SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
    
18.    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    
19.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    
20.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
21.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
22.                             045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
23.                             065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
24.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
25.    REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 128.2E
    
26.     ---
    
27.    FORECASTS:
    
28.    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    
29.    090600Z --- 12.1S 126.9E
    
30.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    
31.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
32.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
33.                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
34.                             060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
35.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
36.    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    
37.     ---
    
38.    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    
39.    091800Z --- 12.7S 125.3E
    
40.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    
41.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
42.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
43.                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
44.                             050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
45.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
46.    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    
47.     ---
    
48.    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    
49.    100600Z --- 13.4S 123.8E
    
50.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    
51.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
52.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
53.                             010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
54.                             010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
55.                             000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
56.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
57.                             070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
58.                             060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
59.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
60.    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    
61.     ---
    
62.    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    
63.    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    
64.    101800Z --- 14.4S 122.4E
    
65.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    
66.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
67.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
68.                             010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
69.                             000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
70.                             000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
71.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
72.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
73.                             020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
74.                             010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
75.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
76.                             090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
77.                             080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
78.                             050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
79.    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    
80.     ---
    
81.    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    
82.    111800Z --- 16.1S 119.9E
    
83.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
    
84.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
85.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
86.                             030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
87.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
88.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
89.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
90.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
91.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
92.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
93.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
94.                             120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
95.                             090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
96.                             080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
97.    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    
98.     ---
    
99.    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    
100.     ---
     
101.    96 HRS, VALID AT:
     
102.    121800Z --- 18.3S 118.9E
     
103.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
     
104.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
     
105.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
106.                             030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
107.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
108.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
109.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
110.                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
111.                             050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
112.                             050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
113.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
114.                             120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
115.                             100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
116.                             090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
117.    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
     
118.     ---
     
119.    120 HRS, VALID AT:
     
120.    131800Z --- 21.8S 121.3E
     
121.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
     
122.     ---
     
123. REMARKS:
     
124. 082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 127.9E.
     
125. 08APR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
     
126. 174 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
     
127. SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
     
128. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
     
129. 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
     
130. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072000).//
     
131. NNNN

複製代碼

krichard2011

BoM 稍早升格一級熱帶氣旋
強度上看四級熱帶氣旋 威脅澳洲西岸
逐漸進入低風切區域
底層型態不錯 預計強度將逐漸增強

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 0720 UTC 11/04/2023
   
5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
   
6. Identifier: 23U
   
7. Data At: 0600 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 14.5S
   
9. Longitude: 121.2E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 994 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  11/1200: 14.9S 120.9E:     040 (070):  045  (085):  990
    
33. +12:  11/1800: 15.3S 120.4E:     050 (095):  055  (100):  984
    
34. +18:  12/0000: 15.7S 120.0E:     060 (115):  060  (110):  980
    
35. +24:  12/0600: 16.1S 119.7E:     070 (125):  070  (130):  972
    
36. +36:  12/1800: 16.8S 119.2E:     085 (155):  085  (155):  959
    
37. +48:  13/0600: 18.0S 119.2E:     105 (190):  095  (175):  950
    
38. +60:  13/1800: 19.5S 120.4E:     120 (225):  090  (165):  953
    
39. +72:  14/0600: 21.1S 123.4E:     145 (265):  040  (075):  994
    
40. +96:  15/0600: 23.0S 134.0E:     200 (370):  030  (055): 1003
    
41. +120: 16/0600:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has developed northwest of the Kimberley.
    
44. 
    
45. Good confidence in the position of 23U with visible imagery and recent
    
46. microwave passes.
    
47. 
    
48. Intensity is 40 knots based on recent SMAP data and development of curved band,
    
49. which gives greater confidence in Dvorak analysis of DT = 3.0. MET = 3.5 based
    
50. on D- 24 hour trend. PAT is 3.0. FT = 3.0 based on DT. CI maintained at 3.0.
    
51. Objective guidance is becoming more credible with development of curved
    
52. banding. Available objective guidance with SATCON 53 knots (1-min), CIMSS ADT
    
53. 57 knots (1-min), NESDIS ADT 57 knots (1-min) and OPEN-AIIR about 35 knots.  
    
54. 
    
55. Wind shear has decreased over 23U and at 0600 UTC, CIMSS upper wind analysis
    
56. has analysed approximately 15 knots of shear. The system should begin a rapid
    
57. development cycle with favourable shear, high mid-level moisture and warm SSTs
    
58. (30+ degrees Celsius).
    
59. 
    
60. Upper divergence to the south increases and the system is forecast to develop
    
61. into a severe tropical cyclone from Wednesday, likely reaching a category 4
    
62. system during Thursday. 23U is forecast to move southwest parallel to and
    
63. offshore from the Kimberley coast during Tuesday and Wednesday before turning
    
64. south and then southeast during Thursday, with a coastal crossing likely later
    
65. Thursday or early Friday between Port Hedland and Broome.
    
66. 
    
67. The forecast track is based on a standard consensus of numerical weather
    
68. prediction (NWP) models. This track is consistent with upper-air analyses which
    
69. show a mid-upper ridge over the NT and an approaching upper trough over
    
70. southern WA. There is relatively high confidence in this forecast track. In the
    
71. long-term, 23U is forecast to move over central Australia and begin a
    
72. transition to a deep, sub-tropical system as it interacts with the sub-tropical
    
73. jet.  
    
74. 
    
75. Intensity forecasts are based on a rapid rate of development prior to landfall,
    
76. with a landfall intensity of 95 knots (Category 4). This is consistent with a
    
77. consensus of NWP models. 23U is forecast to remain a strong system as it moves
    
78. inland on Friday.  
    
79. 
    
80. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
81. ==
    
82. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1330 UTC

複製代碼

krichard2011

12Z 升格澳式C2 上看澳式C4

深對流大量爆發中

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1348 UTC 11/04/2023
   
5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
   
6. Identifier: 23U
   
7. Data At: 1200 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 15.2S
   
9. Longitude: 120.5E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: southwest (233 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 985 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT:D0.5/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  11/1800: 15.5S 120.2E:     040 (070):  060  (110):  980
    
33. +12:  12/0000: 15.8S 119.9E:     050 (090):  065  (120):  976
    
34. +18:  12/0600: 16.2S 119.6E:     055 (105):  070  (130):  972
    
35. +24:  12/1200: 16.5S 119.3E:     065 (120):  080  (150):  964
    
36. +36:  13/0000: 17.5S 118.9E:     080 (150):  090  (165):  952
    
37. +48:  13/1200: 18.9S 119.5E:     100 (180):  095  (175):  948
    
38. +60:  14/0000: 20.4S 121.6E:     115 (215):  070  (130):  964
    
39. +72:  14/1200: 21.8S 125.7E:     140 (255):  040  (075):  997
    
40. +96:  15/1200: 22.7S 136.8E:     210 (385):  030  (055): 1002
    
41. +120: 16/1200:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has developed rapidly during the past 6 hours, with
    
44. bursting convection and symmetric structure evident. Good position fix based on
    
45. overshooting cold tops in EIR imagery and recent microwave passes.
    
46. 
    
47. Dvorak analysis yields FT = 4.0 based on MET/PAT and D+ 24h trend. DT not
    
48. available due to development of central cold cover pattern. Available objective
    
49. guidance with SATCON 55 knots (1-min), CIMSS ADT 59 knots (1-min), NESDIS ADT
    
50. 57 knots (1-min) and OPEN-AIIR about 42 knots. Intensity is set at 55 knots.
    
51. 
    
52. CIMSS upper wind shear analysed at 10-15 knots over the cyclone at 1200 UTC.
    
53. Ilsa is forecast to develop at a greater than standard rate with favourable
    
54. shear, high mid-level moisture and warm SSTs (30+ degrees Celsius) along the
    
55. forecast track. Upper divergence is expected to increase to the south ahead of
    
56. an approaching mid-latitude trough.
    
57. 
    
58. The cyclone is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone from
    
59. Wednesday, likely reaching a category 4 intensity during Thursday. Ilsa is
    
60. forecast to move southwest parallel to and offshore from the Kimberley coast
    
61. during Wednesday before turning south and then southeast during Thursday, with
    
62. a coastal crossing likely later Thursday or early Friday between De Grey and
    
63. Bidyadanga.
    
64. 
    
65. The forecast track is based on a standard consensus of numerical weather
    
66. prediction (NWP) models, consistent with a mid-upper ridge over the NT and an
    
67. approaching upper trough over southern WA. There is relatively high confidence
    
68. in this forecast track. In the long-term, the cyclone is forecast to move over
    
69. central Australia and begin a transition to a deep, sub-tropical system as it
    
70. interacts with the sub-tropical jet.  
    
71. 
    
72. Intensity forecasts are based on a rapid rate of development prior to landfall,
    
73. with a landfall intensity of 95 knots (Category 4). This is consistent with a
    
74. consensus of NWP models. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is forecast to remain a strong
    
75. system as it moves inland on Friday.  
    
76. 
    
77. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
78. ==
    
79. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1930 UTC.

複製代碼

krichard2011

底層結構大致已建構完成

距模式預測登陸還剩下1~2天左右發展空間

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 0127 UTC 12/04/2023
   
5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
   
6. Identifier: 23U
   
7. Data At: 0000 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 15.7S
   
9. Longitude: 119.8E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 981 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.5/6HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  12/0600: 16.1S 119.7E:     040 (075):  070  (130):  974
    
33. +12:  12/1200: 16.5S 119.4E:     050 (095):  080  (150):  965
    
34. +18:  12/1800: 16.9S 119.2E:     055 (105):  085  (155):  961
    
35. +24:  13/0000: 17.4S 119.0E:     065 (120):  095  (175):  952
    
36. +36:  13/1200: 18.8S 119.4E:     075 (135):  100  (185):  945
    
37. +48:  14/0000: 20.2S 121.4E:     100 (185):  075  (140):  969
    
38. +60:  14/1200: 21.5S 125.3E:     125 (230):  045  (085):  993
    
39. +72:  15/0000: 22.4S 130.8E:     150 (280):  035  (065): 1001
    
40. +96:  16/0000:             :              :            :     
    
41. +120: 17/0000:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continues to develop, and a rapid intensification likely
    
44. over the next 24 hours.
    
45. 
    
46. Moderate to good confidence in the position of 23U with recent microwave pass
    
47. and the slow movement of the system.  
    
48. 
    
49. Dvorak analysis of DT = 4.5, MET/PT = 4.0, and D 24 hour trend. FT/CI at 4.0.
    
50. Objective guidance, with ADT CI of 4.4 CIMSS and 4.0 NESDIS, SATCON at 69
    
51. knots, AiDT  71 knots, and Open-AIIR at 55 to 60 knots (1-min). SMOS 2218UTC
    
52. has 50-64 knots near the centre. Intensity is set at 60 knots based on Dvorak
    
53. CI of 4.0.
    
54. 
    
55. Wind shear remains low over 23U and at 0000 UTC CIMSS upper wind analysis has
    
56. analysed approximately 10 knots of shear. The system should begin a rapid
    
57. development cycle with favourable shear, high mid-level moisture and warm SSTs
    
58. (30+ degrees Celsius). CIMSS AI-RI guidance suggests at high probability of a
    
59. 30 to 35 knot increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. Intensity forecasts
    
60. are based on a rapid rate of development prior to landfall, with a landfall
    
61. intensity of 105 knots (Category 4). This is consistent with a consensus of NWP
    
62. models. 23U is forecast to remain a strong system as it moves inland on Friday.
    
63. 
    
64. 
    
65. The forecast track is based on a standard consensus of numerical weather
    
66. prediction (NWP) models. This track is consistent with upper-air analyses which
    
67. show a mid-upper ridge over the NT and an approaching upper trough over
    
68. southern WA. There is relatively high confidence in this forecast track. Ilsa
    
69. is forecast to move southwest parallel to and offshore from the Kimberley coast
    
70. during Wednesday before turning south and then southeast during Thursday, with
    
71. a coastal crossing likely later Thursday or early Friday between Port Hedland
    
72. and Broome, most likely in vicinity of Wallal Downs. In the long-term, Ilsa is
    
73. forecast to move over central Australia and begin a transition to a deep,
    
74. sub-tropical system as it interacts with the sub-tropical jet.  
    
75. 
    
76. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
77. ==
    
78. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0730 UTC.

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JTWC

1. 18S ILSA 230412 0000 15.7S 119.9E SHEM 80 974

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ben811018

【４級熱帶氣旋ＩLSA】
目前位於位於澳洲西北方海域
過去幾個小時快速增強
核心變得更紮實，風眼清晰可見
即將達到巔峰狀態～
目前強度相當於強烈颱風
環流廣達７００公里
很巨很大隻
預計今天夜晚就會登陸！

krichard2011

路徑有機會掃過 Bedout Island
目前實測平均風 65KT 陣風 85KT 最低氣壓 982.1 hPa


http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94310.shtml

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 0719 UTC 13/04/2023
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
   
6. Identifier: 23U
   
7. Data At: 0600 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 18.7S
   
9. Longitude: 118.8E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: south (188 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots (205 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots (285 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 930 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (25 km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  13/1200: 19.6S 118.9E:     025 (050):  120  (220):  923
    
33. +12:  13/1800: 20.4S 119.7E:     040 (070):  095  (175):  948
    
34. +18:  14/0000: 21.2S 121.0E:     045 (085):  070  (130):  971
    
35. +24:  14/0600: 22.0S 122.7E:     055 (100):  055  (100):  983
    
36. +36:  14/1800: 22.8S 127.5E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  998
    
37. +48:  15/0600: 23.0S 133.9E:     085 (155):  030  (055): 1003
    
38. +60:  15/1800:             :              :            :     
    
39. +72:  16/0600:             :              :            :     
    
40. +96:  17/0600:             :              :            :     
    
41. +120: 18/0600:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has reached category 5.
    
44. 
    
45. There is good confidence in the position of the system with an eye visible and
    
46. within range of Port Hedland weather radar.
    
47. 
    
48. Dvorak analysis of 3 hourly average DT of 6.5 based on an eye pattern. 06Z eye
    
49. pattern was CMG surrounding temperature with a DG/CMG eye adjustment, giving a
    
50. DT of 7.0. MET yielded 6.5 base on a D++ 24 hour trend with PAT 6.5. FT/CI=6.5
    
51. based on 3 hourly average DT.
    
52. 
    
53. Objective guidance, with ADT CI of 5.0 CIMSS and 5.0 NESDIS, AiDT   92 knots,
    
54. and Open-AIIR ranging between 90 to 110 knots (1-min). ADT appears limited by
    
55. constraints and not seeing the eye pattern. Intensity set to 110 knots
    
56. (category 5) based mainly on Dvorak and a very clear eye pattern.
    
57. 
    
58. Wind shear remains moderately low over 23U and at 0600 UTC CIMSS upper wind
    
59. analysis has approximately 10 to 15 knots of shear. The system has been
    
60. undergoing rapid development within the last 24 hors with favourable shear,
    
61. high mid-level moisture and warm SSTs (30+ degrees Celsius). The current
    
62. forecast intensity is based on continued development until making landfall.
    
63. This is consistent with a consensus of NWP models. 23U is forecast to weaken
    
64. quickly once over land, but remain at least category 2 a significant distance
    
65. inland.  
    
66. 
    
67. Ilsa has been moving south and is forecast to take a turn to the southeast in
    
68. the next 6 hours. With recent motion to the south, persistence means the
    
69. forecast track crosses the coast further west than model guidance. A coastal
    
70. crossing is likely later tonight or early Friday morning east of Port Hedland
    
71. and west of Wallal Downs. In the long-term, Ilsa is forecast to move over
    
72. central Australia and begin a transition to a deep, sub-tropical system as it
    
73. interacts with the sub-tropical jet.  
    
74. 
    
75. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
76. ==
    
77. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1330 UTC.

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