(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.2N 133.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 150400Z AMSR2 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED ILL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 150048Z
ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWS PREDOMINANTLY 15-20KT WINDS IN THE
NORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES WHICH IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE
BULK OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
AREA TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR 99W TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGH (30-40KT) VWS
AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST, OFFSET ONLY BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES
AND STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP INTO A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
提升卡
千斤頂
