alu

基本資料  
編號　　　　：91 P
擾動編號日期：2023 年 02 月 12 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2023 年 02 月 00 日 00 時
91P.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.13.6S.137.8E

周子堯@FB

BoM:15U

IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 14 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Friday 17 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical Low (15U) lies over the western Gulf of Carpentaria. The risk for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone is assessed as Low from today (Tuesday 14 February) to Thursday 16 February. The low lies in an environment unfavourable for significant development, however as it is a very small tropical low there remains a 5-10% risk of rapid development whilst it lies over the waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The low is expected to move southeastwards initially, then over southern Gulf coast late on Wednesday or Thursday 16th February.

From Friday 17 February, Tropical Low 15U is forecast to track westwards over land across the Northern Territory either dissipating or potentially moving over the Kimberley in Western Australia later in the weekend. This results in Very Low risk for the remainder of the next seven days from Friday 17 February to Tuesday 21 February.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:Very Low

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 14 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Friday 17 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Freddy, category 3, was located over the central Indian Ocean, southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving steadily in a westwards direction. It is forecast to move west of the Australian region on this evening, most likely prior to midnight.

For the latest information please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Potential Cyclones:

There are no other signficant systems in the region.

Tropical low (15U) is expected to make landfall over southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday 16th February, before moving west across Northern Territory and then possibly over the Kimberley later in the weekend. The low may also dissipate as it is tracking westward across the Northern Territory.

By Monday 20 February there is the chance that this system may push off the west Kimberley coast or over Browse Basin though there is also the chance that it has dissipated over land prior to this time. There is a significant amount of uncertainty around this system moving over water, and whether there is any risk of development in the event that this does occur. As a result the risk of a tropical cyclone within the region remains Very Low through to Tuesday 21 February.

If this low does move across the Kimberley an increase in rainfall would be expected through the northern and eastern Kimberley later in the weekend, possibly extending to the western Kimberley early next week.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low