alu

基本資料  
編號　　　　：97 W
擾動編號日期：2023 年 01 月 09 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2023 年 01 月 00 日 00 時
97W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.4.4N.130.9E

周子堯@FB

JTWC 評級Low

    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.4N 132.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 488 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION LIKE SYSTEM WITH 15-
20 KNOT WINDS AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A CORE OF WEAK WINDS. LINEAR BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE (20
-25 KTS) VWS, AND WARM 28-29C SST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.