簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2022-11-12 23:34
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11/11 12Z JMA升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 20N 169E NW SLOWLY.
11/11 1730Z JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.1N
167.5E, APPROXIMATELY 71 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND AN 111332Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER
THE LLC AND ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN OUTSKIRTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF 96W IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH IT HAVING
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST TO THE EAST AIDING IN OUTFLOW,
WARM (27-29C) SST, AND WITHIN A POCKET OF LOW (10-15KT) VWS. AUTOMATED
AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS INDICATE 96W IS A TROPICAL
SYSTEM AS THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THINGS ARE LOOKING UP 96W. HOWEVER, IT HAS ONLY A SHORT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE IT COULD CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR EVEN WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, BEFORE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
11/11 18Z JMA發布GW
熱帯低気圧 a
2022年11月12日04時15分発表
12日03時の実況
種別 熱帯低気圧
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 ウェーク島近海
中心位置 北緯20度50分 (20.8度)
東経168度25分 (168.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧 1010 hPa
最大風速 15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速 23 m/s (45 kt)
13日03時の予報
種別 台風
強さ -
存在地域 ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心 北緯22度10分 (22.2度)
東経164度55分 (164.9度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧 1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径 150 km (80 NM)
14日03時の予報
種別 台風
強さ -
存在地域 ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心 北緯23度50分 (23.8度)
東経163度10分 (163.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 10 km/h (6 kt)
中心気圧 1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径 240 km (130 NM)
15日03時の予報
種別 台風
強さ -
存在地域 日本のはるか東
予報円の中心 北緯31度25分 (31.4度)
東経167度00分 (167.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 40 km/h (21 kt)
中心気圧 996 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速 30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径 370 km (200 NM)
16日03時の予報
種別 温帯低気圧
強さ -
存在地域 アリューシャンの南
予報円の中心 北緯42度00分 (42.0度)
東経173度55分 (173.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 55 km/h (30 kt)
中心気圧 984 hPa
最大風速 23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速 35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径 520 km (280 NM)
11/11 2030Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.1N 167.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 167.0E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR AND AN 111811Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHEN JUXTAPOSED
AGAINST THE PREVIOUS 111337Z GMI PASS, WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
FAVOR INVEST 96W WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST TO THE
EAST AIDING IN OUTFLOW, WARM (27-29C) SST, AND WITHIN A POCKET OF LOW
(10-15KT) VWS. AUTOMATED AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS
INDICATE 96W IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THINGS ARE LOOKING UP 96W.
HOWEVER, NOW THAT IT HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A DEFINED LLCC, IT HAS ONLY A
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE IT COULD STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR EVEN WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A SUBTROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
11/12 0130Z JTWC發布TCFA
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