(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH
SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. A 120233Z ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS
SHOWS 90W STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT RANGING FROM 25-
30 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT TO KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 115.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 115.E, APPROXIMATELY 244
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 121222Z GMI COLOR ENHANCED 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC,
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT, BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO NO
DISTINCT OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED, VWS RANGING FROM 10-25 KTS, AND WARM
(29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W WILL QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT SLIDES TO THE WEST AND
INTERACTS WITH A BARRIER JET FORMING ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM. THIS
BARRIER JET IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WINDS TO DEFLECT OFF THE TERRAIN AND
AS 90W NEARS THIS EVENT, THOSE WINDS WILL BE DRAWN IN AND GIVE IT THE
EXTRA JUICE IT NEEDS TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA PRIOR TO LAND FALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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