(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N
143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 100401Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES LIMITED, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WITH A DISORGANIZED, POORLY-DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 100041Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 20-25 KNOT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1005.4MB AND A NOTEWORTHY 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.1MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET
BY LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.4N 133.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 130432Z AMSR2
PASS REVEALS A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED (LLC). ALTHOUGH SST VALUES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C, THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND STRONG (20-25KT) VWS. THE
SYSTEM SITS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH THAT
IS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE HINDERING THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 129.4E TO 19.5N 123.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.1N 130.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM EAST
OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 140030Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REFLECTS A
SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SST.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 97W WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT
TRACKS WEST THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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