(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N
129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 246NM NORTHEAST OF THE DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232146Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY SOME ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 121.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 115.4E, APPROXIMATELY 198
NM WEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. A 270441Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A RAGGED, ILL-DEFINED
LLCC. HOWEVER, A 270221Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMCIRCLE AND 5-10 KNOT
WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY POLEWARD,
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM ADJACENT TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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