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老農民版夜神月|2021-8-4 09:37
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-8-4 09:39 編輯
JTWC提升評級至Medium
ABPW10 PGTW 040030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040030Z-040600ZAUG2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZAUG2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031951ZAUG2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032221ZAUG2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 03AUG21 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030900) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 03AUG21 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 114.8E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.3N 125.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY
167 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 032011Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
OBSCURED LLC CAN BE SEEN AS WELL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS WHILE UKMET AND JGSM STILL DISAGREE WITH THE SYSTEM
DEPICTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 032230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.8N 145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY
612 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031916Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (< 15 KNOTS),
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
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