dom

Habana快速增強中
在短時間內已清空至OW+LG

低風切，黃OHC
還在增強中

或已有ITC水平

老農民版夜神月

ADT起飛中,其中FT3.6,AdjT4.7,RawT6.0,眼溫-0.6度

  CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.6 / 988.8mb/ 57.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.6     4.7     6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp :  -0.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C

dom

JTWC德法T5.5

TPXS11 PGTW 050621


A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA)


B. 05/0545Z


C. 16.36S


D. 75.49E


E. THREE/MET8


F. T5.5/5.5/D4.0/24HRS STT: D2.5/03HRS


G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI


H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.5. DBO PT.


I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE




MARTIN

dom

JTWC06Z升格C2

24S HABANA 210305 0600 16.4S 75.5E SHEM 90 972

上報還在TS的Habana
T值也在3小時內由3.0升至5.5
MFR06Z升格熱帶氣旋

CYCLONE TROPICAL numéro 13
(HABANA)

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 120 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 170 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 983 hPa.
Position le 05 mars à 10 heures locales: 16.3 Sud / 75.6 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 2140 km au secteur: EST
Distance de Mayotte: 3290 km au secteur: EST
Déplacement: EST, à 17 km/h.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC直接從00Z的TS,50節;一舉提升至C2,90節!!這種情況不是沒有,但還真的不多見

24S.HABANA.21030500.50kts.993mb.16.6S.74.4E.

24S HABANA 210305 0600 16.4S 75.5E SHEM 90 972

老農民版夜神月

dom 發表於 2021-3-5 14:41
JTWC06Z升格C2
上報還在TS的Habana
T值也在3小時內由3.0升至5.5

雖然MFR也將24S升了格成為了熱帶氣旋,但定強僅65KT,跟JTWC的差異還真是滿大的...

WTIO30 FMEE 050651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 75.6 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

24H: 2021/03/06 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

120H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

dom

JTWC09Z上調巔峰強度至C3，100KT

老農民版夜神月

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