(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.4S
86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 822 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170705Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICT A
WEAK CIRCULATION WITH SOME SHEARED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 170914Z
ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION
FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND HIGH (>25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
INVEST 93S TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 89.9E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BoM編號04U
Another tropical low (04U) lies at approximately 9S 92E, just outside the far northwestern corner of the forecast region. The system may move south and into the region during Wednesday. Conditions are broadly unfavourable for the system to intensify though may improve on Thursday and Friday. During the weekend the system is expected to move west and out of the region.
The system is not expected to have any impact on the Cocos Islands.
There are no other tropical systems in the Western Region and none are expected to develop in the next three days.
Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
Friday: Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9S 92.4E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 262211Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH SOME SHEARED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.4S 90.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 611 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
291551Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 290204Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY 10 KNOT WINDS WITH 15-20 KNOT
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTXS21 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 85.8E TO 13.1S 83.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 85.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 673
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301531Z MHS 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DETACHED FROM MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 301532Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312100Z.//
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