Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:36 pm WST on Friday 4 December 2020
for the period until midnight WST Monday 7 December 2020.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
There are currently no tropical systems in the Western Region.
A weak tropical low (02U) may form in the trough in the vicinity of Christmas Island late Sunday. The weak tropical low should be slow moving during Sunday and Monday. There is a Low risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone next week from Tuesday.
As the trough drift southwards next week there is a chance that this system 02U or another system affects the Pilbara or the adjacent Kimberley coast late in the working week. Heavy showers and thunderstorms, with moderate to heavy falls possible.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7S
105.3E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050850Z SSMI
85GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
AND OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (>25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
WTXS22 PGTW 070530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070321ZDEC2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S).//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 107.9E TO 13.6S 111.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 108.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 106.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 108.0E, APPROXIMATELY 279
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 070231Z METOP-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT (2-DEGREE DIAMETER) SYSTEM
WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 070233Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS
AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30-35KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL INTENSIFY AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080530Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 82.8E.//
NNNN
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