(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N
134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 69 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080045Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME FORMATIVE BANDING IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 132
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) LARGELY OBSCURED BY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
INDICATION OF POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH. A 080430Z
AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THIS PERCEPTION,
REVEALING FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE NORTH. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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