AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8S
88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1074 NM WEST OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZING FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY
OBSCURING AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091530Z
ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS 15-20 KTS WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-29C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 91.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 88.8E, APPROXIMATELY 968 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 111901Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTXS21 PGTW 120930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 89.7E TO 6.4S 82.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.7S
89.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW. A 120720Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM ALL
SIDES. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING
TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130930Z.//
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