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Heigo|2020-10-29 15:43
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本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-10-29 15:44 編輯
JTWC TCFA
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.8N 148.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 478
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 290637Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 290006Z METOP-C ASCAT
PASS REVEALS TIGHT TROUGHING WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF HIGHER (20
TO 30 KNOTS) WINDS TO THE SOUTH BUT WITH WINDS OF ONLY 5-10 KNOTS ON
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY
WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD, QUICKLY INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR LESS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 290730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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