dom

PAGASA率先命名"Quinta"，上看STS不封頂

Forecast Position
24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 715 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar(12.1 °N, 131.2 °E)
48 Hour(Sunday afternoon):320 km East of Juban, Sorsogon( 13.1 °N, 126.9 °E)
72 Hour(Monday afternoon): 70 km North of Romblon, Romblon( 13.2 °N, 122.3 °E)
96 Hour(Tuesday afternoon):400 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro( 13.8 °N, 117.5 °E)
120 Hour(Wednesday afternoon):700 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)( 14.8 °N, 113.8 °E)

老農民版夜神月

風場掃描南側有數根25KT的旗幟，但過濾完就沒了JTWC可能會不予承認
目前支持98W發展達一定程度(輕颱上限至中颱)的系集仍然極多且穩定

老農民版夜神月

JMA12Z發布GW,初報上望35m/s(65KT)

熱帯低気圧
中心位置（度） 10.7N 133.4E
進行方向、速さ 西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1006hPa
最大風速 15m/s (30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s (45kt)
<2020年10月24日21時の予報>
強さ/種類 台風
中心位置（度） 12.6N 129.8E
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h (9kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s (35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s (50kt)
予報円の半径 150km (80NM)
<2020年10月25日21時の予報>
強さ/種類 台風
中心位置（度） 13.6N 125.4E
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h (11kt)
中心気圧 990hPa
中心付近の最大風速 25m/s (50kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s (70kt)
予報円の半径 240km (130NM)
<2020年10月26日21時の予報>
強さ/種類 台風
中心位置（度） 13.4N 120.6E
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h (12kt)
中心気圧 990hPa
中心付近の最大風速 25m/s (50kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s (70kt)
予報円の半径 370km (200NM)
<2020年10月27日21時の予報>
強さ/種類 強い台風
中心位置（度） 14.0N 115.8E
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h (12kt)
中心気圧 975hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s (65kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s (95kt)
予報円の半径 520km (280NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 600km (325NM)
<2020年10月28日21時の予報>
強さ/種類 台風
中心位置（度） 14.6N 110.6E
進行方向、速さ 西 25km/h (13kt)
中心気圧 990hPa
中心付近の最大風速 25m/s (50kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s (70kt)
予報円の半径 700km (390NM)

老農民版夜神月

JTWC 1400Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 133.2E TO 13.4N 128.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 132.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY
261 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231221Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT BUILDING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WHICH IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN A 231130Z ASCAT PASS.  
98W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241400Z.//
NNNN

dom

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2020-10-23 21:43
JTWC 1400Z發布TCFA

兩大機構幾乎同步

老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z升格21W，速報定強30KT

老農民版夜神月

JTWC初報上望75KT

WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 12.5N 131.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 131.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 13.3N 129.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 13.6N 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 13.6N 124.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 13.5N 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 13.6N 116.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 14.6N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 15.4N 107.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 130.7E.
24OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF (WTPN21 PGTW 231400).//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 率先升格TS