(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.5S
64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) MOSTLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTHEAST. A 201422Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE LLC WITH POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE (30
TO 50 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVERHEAD. 92S IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM
(29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT 92S
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LARGELY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
ABIO10 PGTW 241300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/241300Z-241800ZJUL2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.1S 56.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPET AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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