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25P.Harold 南太平洋史上最強4月TC

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-4 21:47 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-4-4 22:42 編輯

FMS04/12Z升格澳式C4,定強90KT,並預測+18H後,將達澳式C5,巔峰上望120KT(10分鐘內最高持續風速)
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 041401 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 955HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.6S 165.2E AT 041200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING ONTO LLCC WITH CLOUD FILLED EYE.
ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW
TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HAROLD IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUITORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN CMG
YIELDS DT 5.0+0.5BF=5.5, MET=4.5 AND PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 15.2S 165.5E MOV SSE AT 03KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 15.5S 165.7E MOV SSE AT 03KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.6S 166.4E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 120 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 15.9S 167.9E MOV ESE AT 04KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 042000 UTC.

65643.gif 65660.gif
182402cgpbyjz0vbe9sqop.png #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Fiji-Mete26790281.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-4 22:56 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC04/12Z升格C4,雖同樣預測Harold仍有增強空間,但預測較沒有FMS激進
僅預測Harold將略為加強至120KT(1分鐘內最高持續風速)
WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.0S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.4S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.6S 166.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 15.9S 167.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.6S 172.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.8S 179.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 24.7S 171.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 165.2E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BEEN SUBSUMED INTO A LARGE
MASS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AMBIGUITIES FROM A 041014Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS,
IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KTS) FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, WARM (29-
30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH A RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE MUCH LOWER DUE TO STORM
MOTION AND SHEAR VECTORS BEING IN PHASE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. TC 25P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 25P OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO VERY SLOW, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. BEYOND TAU 36, THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION
OF THE STR WEAKENS, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY FURTHER TO 120 KTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
TAPS INTO HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE REMAINING IN A
RELATIVELY LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
IN A REGION OF MIDDLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WATER AND SOME DRY
AIR INGESTION THAT IS EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANIMATION WILL COMPETE WITH THE ROBUST OUTFLOW TO LIMIT MUCH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM
EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND DECREASING SSTS.
BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL
AGREE ON THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFER ON THE DEGREE, WITH SOME MODELS
INDICATING A MOVEMENT DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST AT ONE OR TWO
KNOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST, WHILE OTHERS MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTHEAST
AT THREE TO FOUR KNOTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS
COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TRACK AND FORWARD
MOTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE GENERAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

sh2520.gif 52892.jpg
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點評

這種廢型態也可以C4 笑死了  發表於 2020-4-5 00:22
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2020-4-5 17:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-4-5 17:41 編輯

過去6小時在萬那度西方近海滯留打轉。
FMS 05/06Z定強95kts,中心氣壓945hpa,並預測未來36小時內強度持平;JTWC則於稍早05/00Z降為C3。由於所處環境不差,是否會有二次巔峰仍有待觀察。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 050809 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 945HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.7S 165.7E AT 050600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 1 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 155 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE GETTING CLOUD FILLED IN THE
LAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH CENTRE EMBEDDED IN B
WITH NO BANDING FEATURE, YIELDING DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 16.1S 166.4E MOV ESE AT 04KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 16.5S 167.6E MOV ESE AT 05KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 17.1S 169.6E MOV ESE AT 07KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.2S 172.3E MOV ESE AT 08KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 051400 UTC.

65660.gif sh2520.gif sh2520 (1).gif 20200405.0850.himawari-8.ir.25P.HAROLD.105kts.950mb.15.6S.165.5E.100pc.jpg 20200405.0734.f17.91pct91h91v.25P.HAROLD.100kts.954mb.15.6S.165.5E.085pc.jpg rgb_lalo-animated (1).gif rb_lalo-animated.gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-5 22:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-4-5 22:29 編輯

Harold於約18H的調整過後,於稍早再度出現明顯加強,並將開始逐漸往東移動,通過萬那杜群島
FMS05/12Z升格澳式C5定強110KT,中心最低氣壓930百帕,再度上望120KT;JTWC05/12Z德法分析T6.5,定強120KT
Harold成為FMS管轄區內首個4月澳式C5
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 051400 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 930HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 165.6E AT 051200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 110 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING ONTO LLCC WITH ELONGATED EYE
DISCERNABLE ON IR IMAGERY. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD IS SLOW MOVING FOR NOW BEFORE BEING STEERED
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP
THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN. MG EYE WITH CMG SURROUND WITH
NO EYE ADJUSTMENT, YIELDING DT=6.5, MET=6.0 AND PT=6.5. FT BASED ON
DT THUS, YIELDING T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.9S 166.3E MOV ESE AT 04KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 16.3S 167.7E MOV ESE AT 06KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 17.0S 169.8E MOV ESE AT 07KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.1S 172.5E MOV ESE AT 09KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 042000 UTC.
WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 165.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 165.6E
TPPS11 PGTW 051224

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)

B. 05/1200Z

C. 15.36S

D. 165.62E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.5. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   05/0734Z  15.57S  165.43E  SSMS


   MARTIN

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-6 03:18 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-4-6 09:27 編輯

Harold開始逐漸加速向西移動,近中心主要雲系已將萬那杜部分島嶼囊括入其中
其將於今日對萬那杜桑馬省,馬朗帕省及彭納馬省造成嚴重影響
FMS05/18Z定強維持110KT,中心最低氣壓930百帕,JTWC則提升至125KT
HURRICANE WARNING 015 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 051913 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4 SOUTH
166.2 EAST AT 051800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.4S 166.2E at 051800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 6 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.6S 167.4E AT 060600 UTC
AND NEAR 16.2S 169.3E AT 061800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 014.

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-6 14:51 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-4-6 15:46 編輯

Harold目前風眼位於萬那杜群島北部數座島嶼之間
JTWC06/06Z德法分析T7.0,FMS亦提升定強至120KT,924hPa


TPPS11 PGTW 060618
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 06/0550Z
C. 15.74S
D. 167.72E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 6.5. PT IS 7.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   MARTIN
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200406/0600Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: HAROLD
ADVISORY NR: 2020/13
OBS PSN: 06/0600Z S1542 E16742
CB: WI 120NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: E 08KT
C: 924HPA
MAX WIND: 120KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 06/1200 S1554 E16830
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 120KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 06/1800 S1618 E16936
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 120KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 07/0000 S1642 E17048
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 07/0600 S1718 E17212
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 110KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200406/1300Z
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2020-4-6 16:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-4-6 17:10 編輯

JTWC 06/06Z定強135kts,中心氣壓920hpa,已達辛普森颶風等級C4上限。
25P HAROLD
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 06, 2020:

Location: 15.8°S 167.8°E
Maximum Winds: 135 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 920 mb

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2020-4-6 18:50 | 顯示全部樓層
HURRICANE WARNING 017 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 060705 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 924HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7
SOUTH 167.7 EAST AT 060600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.7S 167.7E AT 060600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.3S 169.6E AT 061800 UTC
AND NEAR 17.3S 172.2E AT 070600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 016.
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