霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：91 C
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 17 日 09 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 20 日 07 時
91C.INVEST.25kts-1009mb-15.3N-163.3W


  CPHC:10%  

1. An area of low pressure with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms is about 550 miles south-southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii. Some subsequent development of this system is
possible while it moves northwestward over the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC17/2200Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5N 164.1W TO 22.6N 166.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171712Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 163.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5N 163.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 486 NM SOUTHWEST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAWAII. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172007Z 89GHZ METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION TAKING ON MARGINAL ROTATION
ABOVE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH LOW-MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE LLC, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INVEST 91C TRACKING
NORTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182200Z.
//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

CPHC 展望提升至50%。

1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an elongated area of
low pressure around 450 miles southwest of Honolulu. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development over the next 24 hours as the system moves toward the
northwest. By late Wednesday or Thursday, chances for development
drop off significantly as the low interacts with another disturbance
approaching from the west. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

霧峰追風者

展望降低至20%，逐漸北上轉化溫氣。

1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low
pressure around 300 miles west of Kauai. Environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive for some development through tonight
as the system moves toward the north-northwest. Conditions are
expected to become even less conducive into Thursday as the low
interacts with another disturbance just to its west. As these
disturbances combine, locally gusty winds and heavy rain are
expected for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.