霧峰追風者

  輕度颱風  
編號：1912 ( 13 W )
名稱：楊柳 ( Podul )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 08 月 22 日 09 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 08 月 25 日 08 時
CWB升格日期: 2019 年 08 月 26 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 08 月 27 日 08 時
停編日期　　：2019 年 08 月 30 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：菲律賓 呂宋島 奧羅拉省
　　　　　　　越南 廣平省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：23 m/s ( 9 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：23 m/s ( 45 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：25 m/s ( STS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：35 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：990 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：120 公里
十級風半徑　　：---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
99W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-5N-160E



以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC23/1000Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N

145.1E, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 230612Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 230010Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS SIMILARLY REVEALS THE LLC TO BE VERY DISORGANIZED AND SHOWS 10
TO 15 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLC. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

moneycheong

windy預測穿過菲律賓後會在南海增強，並最終登陸華南。
準確度有待觀察，但很大機會是白鹿之後的另一個生成的颱風，而且可能又是登陸前一刻達到顛峰的颱風，發展像極最近幾年登陸華南並造成巨大影嚮破的颱風，雖然現在說言之尚早，但大家可以關注一下。

t02436

評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 145.1E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 232349Z MHS
METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS A BROAD, MIDLEVEL TURNING WITH
EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WEAK, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION. A 232351Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SIMILARLY REVEALS A
DISORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY 10-15 KNOT
WIND BARBS. 99W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (29 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 - 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

ericlin6925

這個擾動港澳和廣東就要特別留意了，如果稍偏北點可能南部也會有影響(目前看法可能不會)，如果順利到港澳附近且保持中度以上強度，港澳有可能會連續三年掛十號風球(港澳歷史有曾連續三年掛10號風球嗎)。

甜心

ericlin6925 發表於 2019-8-24 13:15
這個擾動港澳和廣東就要特別留意了，如果稍偏北點可能南部也會有影響(目前看法可能不會)，如果順利到港澳附 ...

下週末北方會有槽線通過日本附近海域，太平洋高壓勢力會明顯減弱個人反倒認為直衝到港澳機率偏底。

它有可能到呂宋島附近就突破高壓北上。

rock32767

甜心 發表於 2019-8-24 13:36
下週末北方會有槽線通過日本附近海域，太平洋高壓勢力會明顯減弱個人反倒認為直衝到港澳機率偏底。

它有 ...

怎麼每次看到你發言 就有颱風會自動導航來台灣

camak

rock32767 發表於 2019-8-24 16:16
怎麼每次看到你發言 就有颱風會自動導航來台灣

剛剛看了windy未來七日的預測，路徑到菲律賓後就北上往台灣而來，雖然離下週六還有一段時間，僅供參考！！