霧峰追風者

  中度颱風  
編號：1910 ( 11 W )
名稱：柯羅莎 ( Krosa )



  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 08 月 04 日 08 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 08 月 05 日 14 時
CWB升格日期: 2019 年 08 月 05 日 14 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 08 月 06 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 08 月 06 日 14 時
停編日期　　：2019 年 08 月 16 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：日本 廣島縣

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：43 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：40 m/s ( 80 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：100 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓：945 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：300 公里
十級風半徑　　：100 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95W.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-14.8N-146.0E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

jrchang5

JTWC 04/17Z評級Low。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.2N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041109Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 041109Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS THE ELONGATED LLC WITH SWATHS OF 20 KT WINDS MORE THAN 100
NM TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (32 TO 33 CELCIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SPLIT ON 95W WITH ALL SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION ON A NORTHWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 72 HOURS. OF NOTE, SOME MODELS SHOW 95W
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE OTHERS SHOW IT BEING ABSORBED INTO
10W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JMA 升格熱帶低壓。

jrchang5

JTWC 05/06Z提升評級至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY
245 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH NO
CLEARLY DISCERNABLE CENTER AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLC. THIS IS ALSO SEEN IN A 042341Z ASCAT PASS AND 050326Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (5-15KTS)
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLY WARM (29-31C), DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS MARGINAL DUE TO INFLOW FROM THE EAST. DIVERGENCE AND SPEED
SHEAR BOTH PICK UP RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH AND ARE SUSTAINING THE
CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVELY PREDICTING
DEVELOPMENT OF 95W WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS NORTHWARD. UKMO IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, CALLING FOR
95W TO BE RE-ABSORBED INTO TS 10W RATHER THAN DEVELOPING 95W
INDEPENDENTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JMA發佈GW

熱帯低気圧
令和元年08月05日16時25分 発表

<05日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 17度00分(17.0度)
東経 146度10分(146.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<06日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 18度35分(18.6度)
東経 143度20分(143.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

alu

中央氣象局  熱帶性低氣壓TD15




2019年08月05日14時

中心位置在北緯 17.0 度，東經 146.0 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 11 公里
預測 08月06日02時
中心位置在北緯 17.5 度，東經 144.9 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西北 時速 12 公里
預測 08月06日14時
中心位置在北緯 18.3 度，東經 143.9 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 170 公里
預測 24 小時有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

jrchang5

JTWC判定05/18Z升格為TD11W。

WTPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051321ZAUG2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 144.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 144.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.1N 143.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.2N 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.3N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.2N 141.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.9N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 24.3N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 26.0N 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 144.0E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
91 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND
062100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051330).//
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