ben811018

LLCC狹長
原本裸露的LLCC終於爆了點對流
算最後掙扎吧~

chart

裸奔的LLCC是原本定位的主中心...不過下午後幾乎都原地踏步!!
至於南邊副中心風場掃出40kts..而且持續北上中...看深夜會不會整合囉!!
目前兩邊都爆對流、而且整合情況看起來還不錯..就看今晚狀況了

老農民版夜神月

18/12Z窩度圖

過濾前風場圖

過濾後風場圖


風場掃出來的風力是夠
緯度20N左右的南面中心旁35KT的旗幟不少
但問題就在那個狹長,混亂不堪的中心
系統基本結構上就過不太了關
再加上目前已經十分接近陸地
CWB至今不升TD看來不是沒有道理的

當然如果JMA是以1903聖帕或1904木恩剛升格時的型態標準,平等看待91W
那他們也可能立即升格91W為1906百合,畢竟風場圖明顯已經風速部分達標
終究颱風的升格與否還是主要看的是JMA臉色

老農民版夜神月

18/18Z,JMA:TD[W]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 21.5N 120.4E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NE 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC判定已於高屏交界附近登陸,同時取消TCFA

ktf

91W雖然減弱,但是副高過去一天又比預期強勢
使得丹娜絲偏東角度小,持續往北,侵襲南韓
這樣一來南邊的水氣就很可能帶上來,西南部還是會中

現在高屏外海的輻合帶降水如果停滯且增強
這種就容易致災

颱風追求

91W昨天晚間中央氣局201時天氣概況已經減弱消失
只剩下水氣及西南風造成南部更多降雨

老農民版夜神月

JMA19/12Z取消TD;JTWC亦於19/1600Z加報中撤評91W
JMA19/09Z天氣圖

19/12Z天氣圖


JTWC19/1600Z加報

ABPW10 PGTW 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191600Z-200600ZJUL2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZJUL2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 191200Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
31.7N 124.9E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 191500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8N
119.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) HAS DISSIPATED.//
NNNN