開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

1903 聖帕 令和首颱 日本以南快速北上轉化 JTWC:副熱帶低壓

簽到天數: 587 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-6-16 22:27 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:1903 ( 94 W )
名稱:聖帕 ( Sepat )

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 06 16 21
升格熱低日期:2019 06 17 20
CWB升格日期: 2019 06 25 14
命名日期  :2019 06 27 17
停編日期  :2019 06 28 14
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):20 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :20 m/s ( 40 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):30 kts ( SD )
海平面最低氣壓995 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :100 公里
十級風半徑  :---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-5.0N-140.0E

20190616.1400.himawari-8.ir.94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5N.140E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 698 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

老農民版夜神月|2019-6-17 22:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-6-18 21:45 編輯

17/12Z,JMA認定已升格為TD
19061721.png
17/1430Z,JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N
139.0E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171125Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING
PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A
171126Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15
KNOT WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED 20 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND BROAD
EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 30-31C. A RECENT SOUNDING FROM PALAU INDICATES DRY
AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH GFS INDICATING
SLOW INTENSIFICATION WHILE NAVGEM INDICATES MORE AGGRESSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair0617.jpg 20190617.1410.himawari-8.ir.94W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.5.1N.139E.100pc.jpg
94W_gefs_latest.png
esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.94W.2019.2019061800.gif

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1791 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2019-6-18 10:31 | 顯示全部樓層
EC系集
esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.94W.2019.168.png


這一報會先靠近菲律賓,然後轉向
後期副高勢力強弱很關鍵~
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1791 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2019-6-19 10:24 | 顯示全部樓層
esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.94W.2019.168 (1).png 擷取.PNG

最新一報,似乎不太看好發展了
在副高導引下,朝西北或西北西進行,接近菲律賓東方海域

點評

好像又支持發展而且式的日本貨  發表於 2019-6-20 10:27
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 698 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

老農民版夜神月|2019-6-23 10:40 | 顯示全部樓層
23/01Z,JTWC降評Low
ABPW10 PGTW 230100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/230100Z-230600ZJUN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 137.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY
757 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222207Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT,
WITH VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE (15-25 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THE LOW LEVELS ARE ORGANIZED,
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITHOUT WRAPPING IN IN LIGHT OF
THE MODERATE VWS AND LIMITED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, BEFORE LATER BEING ABSORBED INTO A TRANSITORY
LOW ALONG THE BAIYU FRONT THAT COULD STILL BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO
SOUTHERN JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE 221200Z UKMO RUN STILL MAINTAINS 94W AS
AN INDEPENDENT DISTURBANCE TRACKING TOWARDS TAIWAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.




abpwsair0623jpg.jpg 20190623.0200.himawari-8.vis.94W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.14.1N.132E.100pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 698 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

老農民版夜神月|2019-6-24 15:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-6-24 20:58 編輯

型態稍微好轉,部分數值模式也再度看好有一定程度的發展,並有可能在接近中緯度時成為一個副熱帶低氣壓或副熱帶風暴,24/06ZJTWC評價重回Medium
ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJUN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY
594 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 240115Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ PARTIAL
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLC. 94W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY LOW-TO-MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 94W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INTENSIFYING IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL LOW. NAVGEM IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER, SHOWING
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


abpwsair0624.jpg vis0624-lalo.gif

esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.94W.2019.168.png #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-ECMWF-Sto84808843.jpg
94W_gefs_latest.png INVEST94W.2019062400.fsct.png


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1791 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2019-6-24 17:24 | 顯示全部樓層
圖片1.png


上週說到要留意的熱帶系統94W,
經過多日跋涉,已經來到菲律賓東方海面,
目前環流仍然鬆散,但還是有那麼點組織~

未來72小時是他最後發展機會,
但頂多只是熱帶性低氣壓,
要成為颱風的難度頗高~

預計週三~四之間,
從台灣東方、日本琉球南方通過,
對台灣沒有直接影響,
可以稍微放心囉!

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 698 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

老農民版夜神月|2019-6-25 14:00 | 顯示全部樓層
25/0200Z,JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)/
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 126.8E TO 25.1N 127.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
126.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY
490 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 242130Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR OKINAWA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SHARP, DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN


abpwsair0625.jpg wp9419.gif
94W_250200sair.jpg

TPPN10 PGTW 250327

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 25/0300Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS : POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.


I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   BERMEA



回復

使用道具 舉報

12下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表