老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：12 F ( 95 P )
擾動編號日期：2019 年 05 月 16 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 05 月 00 日 00 時
95P INVEST 190516 0000 8.0S 171.0E SHEM 15 0

老農民版夜神月

JTWC16/06Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S
171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160234Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRICAL REGION OF FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO NEARLY
RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLY WARM (28-
30C) IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 95P WILL CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, ECMWF SHOWS 95P BEING SHORT LIVED AND QUASI-
STATIONARY, WHILE ALL OTHERS PREDICT A STRAIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC16/1200Z升格95P為TD,16/1830Z升評Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0S 171.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 172.7E, APPROXIMATELY 610
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 161529Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC WITH A SMALL AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 152206Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS SOME
SCATTERED 20 KNOT WINDS AMONGST THE PREDOMINANT 15 KNOT WINDS. 95P
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 15 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (29 TO
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
WITH SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

SH, 95, 2019051606,   , BEST,   0,  83S, 1720E,  20, 1007, DB

SH, 95, 2019051612,   , BEST,   0,  86S, 1726E,  25, 1004, TD

SH, 95, 2019051618,   , BEST,   0,  90S, 1732E,  25, 1007, TD

红豆棒冰冰

FMS已于今晨编号12F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 162351 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD12F CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.4S 172.4E
AT 162100UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS PERSISTENT.
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12Z發布TCFA。

WTPS21 PGTW 171230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S 174.7E TO 10.9S 177.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 175.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 174.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 175.1E, APPROXIMATELY 605
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170717Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING, WITH 95P SLOWLY TRACKING INTO A
REGION OF LOW-MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE GETTING STRONGER AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-
30C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TRACK, WITH ALL PREDICTING SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION, BUT VARY ON
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THE GFS AND NAVGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMO DISSENTING
AND ONLY KEEPING A CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL PATCH OF ELEVATED WINDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181230Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

FMS 開始發報，有機會在今日命名。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 171131 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD12F CENTRE [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 8.9S 175.7E
AT 170900UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS PERSISTENT.
ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC于19/1230Z取消TCFA，降为MEDIUM

WTPS21 PGTW 191230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181221ZMAY2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 181230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 177.3E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 176.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
190938Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND 20-25
KNOT WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED IN THE EAST UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO
MODERATE (10-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE. NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS ARE NO LONGER INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT ON TRACK GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST
FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THIS CANCELS REF A
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC于20/1400Z将评级降为LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 201400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201400Z-210600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 177.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 176.9E, APPROXIMATELY
329 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200901Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WAVE-LIKE
FEATURE WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 95P BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS ARE SUPPORTIVE. DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM STAYING QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
(3) JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1)
TO LOW
NNNN