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TD06(92W→93W) JMA:TD 原92W重編

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2019-5-6 12:43 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    : TD 06 ( 92 W93 W )
92W編號日期:2019 05 06 11
升格熱低日期 :2019 05 07 08
92W撤編日期:2019 05 13 11
93W編號日期:2019 05 15 02
撤編日期   :2019 05 00 00
92W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-2.6N-161.5E
20190506.0400.himawari-8.vis.92W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2.6N.161.5E.100pc.jpg

93W INVEST 190514 1800 10.0N 150.0E WPAC 15 1006



原系統:91W討論帖

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king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-6 16:14 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-6 16:25 編輯

JTWC評價Low,並確認本系統為昨日的91W重編

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W: REPLACES INVEST 91W,
WHICH WAS CLOSED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060435Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

91W終報定位:
91W INVEST 190505 1800 1.8N 160.1E

92W初報定位:
92W INVEST 190506 0000 2.6N 161.5E

vis0506-lalo.gif 79_71891_6338ccc3585dae5.jpg

92W2_gefs_latest.png

從數值預報圖上完全一模一樣的路徑,其實也可佐證昨日編號的91W與今日編號的92W確實就是同一個系統
91W0_tracks_latest.png 92W0_tracks_latest.png
只是想不明白為啥這隻需要重編,外洋的就先不說了,光是西太,去年底跟今年初很多擾動,對流不停消長,中心不停的換也沒這樣一天內直接重編的

點評

我也是這麼猜的,我也覺得是NRL被迫跟著重編。下一個91W出現時可以再觀察看看,看是否又被跳過  發表於 2019-5-6 18:54
昨天我也在想FNMOC難得編號時間跟NRL不一致.這樣說來難不成是FNMOC系統後台有問題,可能編不了91W之類的.所以才連跳過兩個91W,NRL今天是跟著來配合的  發表於 2019-5-6 18:45
就是這句話我才更不懂啊,只是編個擾動號能有什麼問題...想不透.不過倒是讓我想起上一個91W也是直接被跳過,也是挺弔詭的  發表於 2019-5-6 18:37
昨天NRL編擾91W時,FNMOC似乎完全不予理會,直到今日FNMOC始對此系統直接編擾92W。  發表於 2019-5-6 18:31
評級原文有說"DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES"  發表於 2019-5-6 17:51
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霧峰追風者|2019-5-7 11:50 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 01Z評級提升至Medium。
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 161.2E, APPROXIMATELY 226
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH INTERMITTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD, OBSCURED BY A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD. A 062305Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF 15
TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST. 92W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MARGINAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING STATUS WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg 20190507.0320.himawari-8.vis.92W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.4.5N.161.2E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-5-7 12:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 稍早升格熱帶低壓。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 05N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
19050709.png

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霧峰追風者|2019-5-7 16:44 | 顯示全部樓層
CWB 06Z升格TD06,並開始發報。
現況
2019年05月07日14時

中心位置在北緯 7.00 度,東經 161.50 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 5 公里
預測 05月08日02時
中心位置在北緯 7.20 度,東經 161.00 度
中心氣壓1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西 時速 5 公里
預測 05月08日14時
中心位置在北緯 7.30 度,東經 160.50 度
中心氣壓1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 170 公里

Download_PTA_201905070600_zhtw.png

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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-11 15:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-11 15:11 編輯

JTWC11/0600Z降評Low,原先剛編擾時系集模式皆有反應的GFS也不再支持發展
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 158.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 158.5E, APPROXIMATELY 30
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE MASS OF ROTATING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 102322Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK,
ELONGATED LLC AROUND THE ISLAND OF POHNPEI WITH A LINE  OF TROUGHING
EXTENDING NORTHEAST BELOW THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS BELOW A POINT SOURCE, ENABLING STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR IS IN THE MODERATE-HIGH
RANGE (15-25KTS) BUT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (29-31C) IN THIS REGION OF THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK TOWARDS THE MARIANAS, WITH MOST BACKING OFF FROM PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES OF DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THERE IS A GREATER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE TAU, AS THE UKMO SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING
EARLY, PRIOR TO REACHING THE MARIANAS ISLANDS, AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISSIPATING 92W ENTIRELY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
abpwsair0511.jpg #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Current-S75899906.jpg
92W0511_gefs_latest.png





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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-13 00:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於12/1400Z取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 153.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair0513.jpg vis0513-lalo.gif



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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-15 03:40 | 顯示全部樓層

93W JMA:TD 與91W,92W一脈相承

本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-15 20:56 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    93 W
擾動編號日期:2019 05 15 02
撤編日期  :2019 05 00 00
93W INVEST 190514 1800 10.0N 150.0E WPAC 15 1006
20190514.1850.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.93WINVEST.15kts-1006mb-100N-1500E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019颱風積分 0 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 0 + 1

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