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27P.Ann 南半球氣旋季內終旋 曾短暫增強至澳式C2

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2019-5-5 22:23 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-14 01:25 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    27 P
擾動編號日期:2019 05 05 21
撤編日期  :2019 05 00 00
94P INVEST 190505 1200 6.0S 164.0E SHEM 15 0
20190505.1330.himawari8.x.wv1km.94PINVEST.15kts-60S-1640E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-9 16:10 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC09/0600Z評級Low,整體結構上仍有非常大的缺陷,是否能像93S一樣成為季末氣旋有待觀察
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 161.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090433Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A POORLY-ORGANIZED BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED, FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 94P BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH SUPPORTIVE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS)
SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 94P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.


abpwsair0509.jpg 20190509.0730.himawari-8.ir.94P.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.11.1S.161.3E.100pc.jpg
20190509.0636.f18.composite.94P.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.11.1S.161.3E.090pc.jpg 20190509.0433.f15.85h.94P.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.10.7S.160.9E.090pc.jpg
20190509.0433.f15.85hw.94P.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.10.7S.160.9E.090pc.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-11 15:54 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC11/0600Z調升評級為Medium,JTWC亦於昨夜將94P升格TD
SH, 94, 2019051006,   , BEST,   0, 129S, 1597E,  20, 1007, DB
SH, 94, 2019051012,   , BEST,   0, 138S, 1594E,  20, 1005, DB
SH, 94, 2019051018,   , BEST,   0, 153S, 1591E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 94, 2019051100,   , BEST,   0, 158S, 1593E,  25, 1007, TD
SH, 94, 2019051106,   , BEST,   0, 163S, 1597E,  25, 1007, TD
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 159.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 159.3E, APPROXIMATELY
785 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE AND POLEWARD OF A SLIGHTLY
ASYMMETRIC, CONSOLIDATING LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DUE TO A CO-
LOCATED ANTICYCLONE OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SURROUNDING A
SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) SHEAR VALUES. SSTS REMAIN
FAVORABLY WARM (27-29C) IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
DECREASE GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, UNTIL 94P
INTERACTS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY MONSOON FLOW OFF THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
AND TAKES A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER, THE
LIKELIHOOD EXISTS THAT 94P WILL TAKE ON SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS A RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

5272ab18972bd4076a32fc4e75899e510eb30965.jpg
最新報T值已升至1.5,雲系型態相較數日前已有極大的進步及改善
TPPS10 PGTW 110636

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)

B. 11/0600Z

C. 15.95S

D. 159.82E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

94P_gefs_latest.png 94P_tracks_latest.png





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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-11 23:50 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-12 00:29 編輯

JTWC1530Z針對94P發布TCFA,目前T值PGTW及KNES已雙雙達2.0
JTWC定強30節,數值大部分亦預測94P強度有短暫時間可以達標TS
SH, 94, 2019051112,   , BEST,   0, 164S, 1600E,  30, 1004, TD

abpwsair0512.jpg
WTPS21 PGTW 111530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5S 160.5E TO 14.9S 152.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 160.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 160.0E, APPROXIMATELY 820NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 111044Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY
ASYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION
ABOVE AND POLEWARD OF THE LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH A 94P UNDER A SMALL REGION OF LOW-MODERATE
(10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29C) IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT DECREASE GRADUALLY TO THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST,
CONTINUING DUE WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER, THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121530Z.//
NNNN
TXPS26 KNES 111216
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)

B. 11/1130Z

C. 15.9S

D. 159.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. PBO
MID LEVEL CENTER. 3.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES WHILE
MET IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/0836Z 15.8S 159.5E SSMIS


...TURK
TPPS10 PGTW 111455

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)

B. 11/1430Z

C. 16.36S

D. 159.86E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   11/1044Z  16.10S  159.47E  MMHS


   VEERKAMP

sh9419.gif 94P_111530sair.jpg
INVEST94P.2019051106.fsct.png
同時ASCAT風場圖也掃出了不錯的風力
1d7509f7905298227513c370d9ca7bcb0a46d433.png
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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-12 04:29 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM於11/18Z命名此系統為Ann,並預測能維持澳式C1強度至+48小時左右,巔峰45節
IDA00512.png
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1934 UTC 11/05/2019

Name: Tropical Cyclone Ann
Identifier: 26U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 159.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  12/0000: 16.0S 158.5E:     040 [080]:  040  [075]:  997
+12:  12/0600: 15.8S 157.8E:     055 [100]:  040  [075]:  997
+18:  12/1200: 15.5S 156.9E:     065 [125]:  040  [075]:  998

+24:  12/1800: 15.2S 155.9E:     080 [145]:  045  [085]:  995
+36:  13/0600: 14.7S 153.4E:     100 [185]:  045  [085]:  996

+48:  13/1800: 14.4S 150.7E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  999
+60:  14/0600: 13.8S 148.2E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]: 1004

+72:  14/1800: 13.2S 145.4E:     155 [290]:  025  [045]: 1007
+96:  15/1800:             :              :            :     
+120: 16/1800:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
The tropical low 26U has continued to display evidence of intensification over
the past 12 to 24 hours, with somewhat sporadic bursts of deep convection
developing closer to and over the low level centre, and curvature gradually
increasing. Successive Ascat passes have also depicted a slow development of the
low level circulation, with the 1120 UTC pass showing areas of gales in both the
eastern and southern quadrants. The system has been upgraded to Tropical cyclone
Ann.

The track has been slowly to the south over the past few days under the
influence of a mid level ridge to the east. This feature is currently weakening
as an upper level trough moves east across the southern Coral Sea to the south
of the system. Following the passage of this trough, a new mid level ridge will
build to the south of Ann, which should lead to the system adopting a track to
the west-northwest later today, will little change in track over the following
few days apart from a slight increase in forward speed.

Ann is located in a relatively favourable environment for development in the
short term, with weak vertical wind shear, SST of around 28 deg C, and good
outflow aloft, particularly polewards. Further ahead, vertical shear is likely
to remain quite weak, but most model runs suggest upper divergence will become
more limited, while drier air above 500 hPa to the near southwest of the system,
evident in animated WV imagery, may also be gradually infiltrated into the
circulation. There are also indications of more limited ocean heat content along
the forecast track. With these factors in mind, Ann is forecast to develop a
little over the next day or so, before beginning a slow weakening trend, still
well to the east of the Queensland coast.   

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Tropical-23941578.jpg #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Tropical-23970296.jpg

同時JTWC升格94P為27P
27P INVEST 190511 1800 16.4S 159.0E SHEM 35 1002

27P TWENTYSEVE
As of 18:00 UTC May 11, 2019:

Location: 16.4°S 159.0°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb


27P_gefs_latest.png

TXPS26 KNES 111811
TCSWSP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B. 11/1730Z
C. 16.5S
D. 159.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. LATEST AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWED POSSIBLE BANDING TYPE EYE IN THE
MAKING. 6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 2.5
BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
11/1444Z 16.4S 159.3E AMSR2
...TURK
TPPS10 PGTW 111857
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 11/1801Z
C. 16.33S
D. 158.90E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET 2.5 PT 2.5 DBO DT
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/1444Z 16.40S 159.33E AMS2
STIGSSON

f2ba8a13632762d04b79990baeec08fa503dc691.jpg 141c20a4462309f75c2890a67c0e0cf3d6cad691.jpg

JTWC首報則預測TS強度能維持72小時,同樣預測巔峰45節

sh2719.gif 27P_111800sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111521ZMAY2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 159.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 159.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 16.1S 157.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 15.6S 155.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 15.0S 153.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 14.6S 150.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 13.7S 145.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 12.7S 139.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 158.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 759
NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND
FROM THE EAST AND SUSTAINED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING A COMBINATION OF THE EIR
IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 111903Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), BELOW THE KNES
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BASED ON A 111125Z ASCAT-
C IMAGE SHOWING 30 KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), SUPPORTIVE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 27P IS TRACKING ALONG ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, THIS STR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS
THE STR REORIENTS, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT EQUATORWARD SLIGHTLY, MAKING
LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF CAPE YORK AFTER TAU 72.
THROUGH TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UNTIL
DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY COOLER SST, AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE THE CONDITIONS MARGINAL. AROUND TAU
72, INCREASED VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. THE 96 HOUR POSITION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE FAVORABLE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
BUT HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT REGENERATION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
MARGINAL AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT (200 NM SPREAD AT TAU
96) WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 111530).//
NNNN


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老農民版夜神月|2019-5-14 01:14 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-14 01:26 編輯

BoM於12/18Z升格Ann為澳式C2,但僅維持了12/18Z及13/00Z兩報.BoM認定Ann巔峰強度50節,氣壓993百帕
d082b31c8701a18b23972ff9902f07082938feda.png IDQ65001.png
澳式C2僅維持了12小時,於13/06Z,BoM降格澳式C1
7e4995cad1c8a7866945cdb86909c93d71cf50eb.png

另外JTWC定強最強時間則在昨晚的12/12Z及12/18Z,JTWC判定Ann的強度來到了55節,巔峰氣壓982百帕

SH, 27, 2019051206,   , BEST,   0, 161S, 1578E,  50,  995, TS
SH, 27, 2019051212,   , BEST,   0, 160S, 1569E,  55,  982, TS
SH, 27, 2019051218,   , BEST,   0, 159S, 1557E,  55,  993, TS
SH, 27, 2019051300,   , BEST,   0, 155S, 1542E,  50,  999, TS

18ff8226cffc1e17dcc0fa844490f603728de9da.jpg 387162d0f703918fd77f477f5f3d269758eec4ab.jpg
f7f92edda3cc7cd9108d756c3701213fb90e91bd.jpg 8dded43f8794a4c29f86559e00f41bd5ac6e39b0.jpg



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

老農民版夜神月|2019-5-15 01:13 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-15 01:18 編輯

BoM,JTWC先後於14/03Z,14/12Z將Ann降格,JTWC降格同時發出Final Warning
7c299e2f070828388bf9f4acb699a9014d08f16c.png
sh27190.gif
27P_141200sair.jpg
WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 146.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 146.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 13.0S 143.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 145.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM NORTH OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
STRUGGLING CONVECTION SHEARED EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED ON THE DIMINISHING
CONVECTION AND THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 (30 KTS). OBSERVATIONS FROM REEF STATIONS OVER 100NM TO THE
SOUTH READ 24-33 KTS DUE TO GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH, BUT IT IS ASSESSED
THAT THESE WINDS ARE NOT WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BUT MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST IS IMPINGING UPON THE SYSTEM AND
SHEARING THE CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LED TO DISSIPATION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA IN
AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 17 FEET.//
NNNN





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