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03W 接近民答那峨 發展受限

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2019-3-12 03:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-21 00:12 編輯

  熱帶低壓  
編號:03 W
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 03 12 03
升格熱低日期:2019 03 14 14
JTWC升格日期:2019 03 15 08
撤編日期  :2019 03 20 13
登陸地點  :菲律賓 民答那峨

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):15 m/s ( 7 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):25 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓1002 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95W INVEST 190311 1800 3.8N 161.6E WPAC 15 0

20190311.1910.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.3.8N.161.6E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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jrchang5|2019-3-13 14:30 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 13/06Z評級Medium。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
155.3E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130239Z AMSR2 89GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLC BELOW A BROAD
REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 122233Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A FEW 20KT WIND BARBS IN THE CORE
AND ISOLATED 25KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST UNDER THE FRAGMENTED
BANDING. 95W IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE DUE TO ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR FURTHER TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD TRACK BUT VARY ON INTENSITY, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICTING
POSSIBLE FORMATION AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND THE ECMWF AND UKMO
BELOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
ASSESSMENT DUE TO MODEL SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg 20190313.0600.himawari-8.vis.95W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.5.7N.153.8E.100pc.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-3-14 18:34 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-14 18:51 編輯

JTWC1410Z發布TCFA
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21     Issued at 14/1000Z
WTPN21 PGTW 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 149.4E TO 6.4N 136.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 148.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAVAL BASE GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140759Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC BELOW PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. 95W IS
CURRENTLY UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG DIVERGENCE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SSTS
ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
WEST BUT VARY ON TIMING AND INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS ASSESSMENT DUE TO MODEL SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151000Z.//
NNNN

abpwsair1410Z.jpg wp9519.gif
95W_141000sair.jpg esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.95W.2019.2019031400.gif





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jrchang5|2019-3-14 19:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-3-14 19:07 編輯

JMA 14/06Z升格為TD。
CWB尚未跟進。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 149E WEST 15 KT.
ASAS_COLOR_201903140600.png 20190314.1030.himawari-8.ircolor.95W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.6.4N.148.5E.100pc.jpg




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jrchang5|2019-3-15 04:44 | 顯示全部樓層
CWB 14/18Z升格為TD04。
第 04 號熱帶性低氣壓

》現況
2019年03月15日02時
      中心位置 北緯 8.00 度 東經 145.50 度
      過去移動方向   -
      過去移動時速   -
      中心氣壓   1004 百帕
      近中心最大風速 12 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 20 公尺/秒
》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 28 公里
     預測 03月15日14時
     中心在 北緯 8.60 度 東經 142.50 度
     中心氣壓   1004 百帕
     近中心最大風速 12 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 20 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 120 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 25 公里
     預測 03月16日02時
     中心在 北緯 9.00 度 東經 139.80 度
     中心氣壓   1004 百帕
     近中心最大風速 12 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 20 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 150 公里
2019031418_PTA_0_download.png 20190314.2010.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.8.4N.145.2E.100pc.jpg


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未來路徑 可能直衝菲國南部。  發表於 2019-3-15 10:15
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老農民版夜神月|2019-3-15 10:10 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-15 10:24 編輯

JTWC於1500Z升格95W為03W


#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Current-S1533968.jpg 0a6b269759ee3d6d466e0bd34d166d224e4aded0.jpg
20df9e510fb30f2486bc621bc695d143ad4b035e.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-3-15 11:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-15 11:07 編輯

JTWC2019/03W首報
WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 8.0N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 8.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 8.5N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 8.5N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 8.5N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 7.9N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 143.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

wp0319.gif 03W_150000sair.jpg

03W_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.95W.2019.2019031412.gif

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霧峰追風者|2019-3-18 19:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-18 20:28 編輯

JTWC 06Z發FW,接近菲中群島,逐漸消散。
WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 6.6N 128.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 128.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 6.5N 126.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 6.6N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 127.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION
SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD OF A RAGGED, EXPOSED, AND ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. A 180121Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED AND OPENED INTO A WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH. THE
SAME ASCAT IMAGERY AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
INDICATE THE TD HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF
MINDANAO NEAR DAVAO LEADING TO ITS FURTHER EROSION. HOWEVER, THE
SHEARED CONVECTION WILL STILL BRING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN TRIGGER GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS AND
FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MINDANAO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN wp032019.20190318070522.gif
20190318.1120.himawari-8.ir.03W.THREE.20kts.1007mb.6.6N.128.5E.100pc.jpg

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已修正><  發表於 2019-3-18 20:30
雲圖用到92P的~  發表於 2019-3-18 20:09
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