老農民版夜神月

  強烈颱風  
編號：1902 ( 02 W )
名稱：蝴蝶 ( Wutip )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 02 月 14 日 23 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 02 月 18 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 02 月 20 日 02 時
停編日期　　：2019 年 03 月 03 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：53 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：55 m/s ( 105 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：140 kts ( Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓：915 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：220 公里
十級風半徑　　：100 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.3.0N.171.0E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1606Z報中將92W評為Low

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A FULLY-
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 160244Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 151012Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY
WEAK, ELONGATED LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL BE
ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A FULLY-
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 160244Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 151012Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY
WEAK, ELONGATED LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL BE
ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 13Z評級提升至"MEDIUM"。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.2N 166.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 237
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN.
A 170712Z WINDSAT 37GHZ SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDING
NORTH FROM THE LLC WITH FORMATIVE MID-LEVEL BANDIND. A 171040Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20
KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W
WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CURVING TO
THE NORTH AND BEGINNING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC92W1712Z最新定位於

3.4°N 166.5°E

風場圖顯示系統本身已有20KT左右的實力

惟中心仍狹長,尚需一段時間整合發展


GFS雖然經常高估強度,但最近預測路徑能力表現不差,值得一看
ㄓ

整體螺旋性亦可從雲圖上見到有愈來愈佳的趨勢

ben811018

TCFA囉!

jrchang5

92W目前正處於一個具有優良的雙流出通道、低垂直風切和暖海溫的良好環境中，後續發展情況有待繼續觀察。

WTPN21 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 158.6E TO 6.1N 151.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 158.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N
166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING SEVERAL WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A
172208Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTER. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190300Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

目前的各數值路徑預測,一周內基本有共識,但EC部分系集與GFS在中長期預報中對於144~168+以後的中長期預測路徑西進或是北轉分歧不小






另由於環境良好,發展條件優異,數值系集均大多看好92W一兩天內發展為TS