(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.9N 125.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY 302 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
LLC WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE (26-28C) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF DISSIPATION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS 01W INTERACTS WITH LAND AND COOLER SSTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
