0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：05 P
擾動編號日期：2018 年 11 月 27 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
97P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2S.164.8E

jrchang5

JTWC於11282030Z評級Low.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.8S
159.3E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM NORTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SWATH
OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 281759Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A VERY DISORGANIZED LLC WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION. A
281050Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLC TO BE VERY BROAD TROUGHING
WITH SWATHS OF 15 KNOTS WINDS TO THE EAST. 97P IS CURRENTLY IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5
TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

jrchang5

JTWC於11290600Z提升評級為Medium.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.8S 159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 376
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 290342Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOW A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC)
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL 281010Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC於11301530Z發布TCFA.

WTPS21 PGTW 301530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7S 154.8E TO 15.0S 150.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 154.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED AT 10.9S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301102Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND SCATTERED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS).
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AND AGREE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE NEAR TERM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011530Z.
//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC已於12020300Z發報升格為Tropical Cyclone 05P(Owen).

WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011521ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 154.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 154.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 14.8S 154.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 15.3S 154.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 15.7S 154.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 16.0S 154.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 16.0S 153.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.8S 151.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS PRIMARILY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FLARING
OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON A 012232Z ASCAT PASS THAT REVEALS A
SWATH OF 30 KT WINDS AND A SMALLER AREA OF 35 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER, IN THE CONVECTION. TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS
BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE
TO AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
WRAPPING, ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.  
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM, 28-30 CELSIUS, SUPPORTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY, WITH GALWEM
AND THE UKMET MODEL MOVING TC 05P TO THE EAST AFTER TAU 12, AND
NAVGEM INSCRIBING A LOOP TOWARDS THE EQUATOR THEN MOVING TC 05P EAST
AFTER TAU 96. THESE EASTWARD TRACKS CONTRAVENE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
STEMMING FROM RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 72.
GFS, ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, HWRF, AND CTCX PREDICT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INITIALLY, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF A SHARP TURN
TO WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36, STEERED BY THE RIDGING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION UNTIL AFTER TAU 24 AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
BUILDS IN EQUATORWARD OF TC 05P, THEN TURNS TC 05P ALMOST DUE
WESTWARD. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR TERM
DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KTS
BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED
IN FROM HIGHER LATITUDES BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ERODE THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE EASTWARD-TRACKING
MODELS, WHICH DO NOT ACCURATELY CAPTURE THE STEERING FLOW, MAINTAIN
A HIGHER INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AND MULTIPLE FORECAST SCENARIOS PORTRAYED BY NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 011530).//
NNNN

jrchang5

昨日至今日行進方向先轉向東，再轉偏西。由於垂直風切增大，海水熱含量降低，導致低層中心裸露，
最大平均風速已降至30kts，並持續減弱中。
JTWC已於12041500Z發出Final Warning。

jrchang5

JTWC於12061930Z重新評級Low，逐漸接近澳洲東北海岸。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 05P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 15.3S 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT
MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 061431Z GMI 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-40 KTS) WITH WEAK
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS).
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 25-30KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT WRAPPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPACT SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS QUEENSLAND,
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jrchang5

JTWC於12070600Z提升評級為Medium。目前所處環境垂直風切仍然偏強，低層中心依舊裸露，強對流分布於低層中心東南側。

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 150.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY
55 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 062333Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MOSTLY
EXPOSED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A WESTERLY TREND OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY GFS IS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION
TO WARNING CRITERIA. THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS (25-35 KNOTS) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.