B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S 103.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. A 141502Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS SCATTERED MID-LEVEL TO DEEP CONVECTION. A 141101Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL FORMATIVE BANDING
AROUND THE LLC. A 141401Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLC WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTH. 96S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOT)
AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH LIMITED INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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